Evidence map›Paper›PMID 33067522›Full record

ArticleModern pathology : an official journal of the United States and Canadian Academy of Pathology, Inc2021

Development of a prognostic model for mortality in COVID-19 infection using machine learning.

Adam L Booth, Elizabeth Abels, Peter McCaffrey

Open access · bronzeAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Modern pathology : an official journal of the United States and Canadian Academy of Pathology, Inc, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 86 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
86citing papers in PubMed, 2 pooled it
15.1field-weighted citation impact, top 1% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

86 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 193 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Pooled it
  3. Article
  4. Article
  5. Data mining approach to predicting of death in patients with COVID-19.Journal of education and health promotion · 2026
    Article
  6. How Will AI Shape the Future of Pandemic Response? Early Clues From Data Analytics.Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis · 2025
    Review
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  13. Machine Learning-Based Prediction of In-Hospital Mortality in Severe COVID-19 Patients Using Hematological Markers.The Canadian journal of infectious diseases & medical microbiology = Journal canadien des maladies infectieuses et de la microbiologie medicale · 2025
    Article
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  20. Association Between Albumin-Corrected Anion Gap and In-Hospital Mortality and Sepsis-Associated Acute Kidney Injury.Medical science monitor : international medical journal of experimental and clinical research · 2024
    Article

26 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

3 authors at 1 institution in 1 country.

Adam L BoothUniversity of Texas Medical Branch, Galveston, TX, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-1231-4117
Elizabeth AbelsUniversity of Texas Medical Branch, Galveston, TX, USA.
Peter McCaffreyUniversity of Texas Medical Branch, Galveston, TX, USA. pemccaff@UTMB.EDU.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-4450-8143
The University of Texas Medical Branch at Galveston · US

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a novel disease resulting from infection with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), which has quickly risen since the beginning of 2020 to become a global pandemic. As a result of the rapid growth of COVID-19, hospitals are tasked with managing an increasing volume of these cases with neither a known effective therapy, an existing vaccine, nor well-established guidelines for clinical management. The need for actionable knowledge amidst the COVID-19 pandemic is dire and yet, given the urgency of this illness and the speed with which the healthcare workforce must devise useful policies for its management, there is insufficient time to await the conclusions of detailed, controlled, prospective clinical research. Thus, we present a retrospective study evaluating laboratory data and mortality from patients with positive RT-PCR assay results for SARS-CoV-2. The objective of this study is to identify prognostic serum biomarkers in patients at greatest risk of mortality. To this end, we develop a machine learning model using five serum chemistry laboratory parameters (c-reactive protein, blood urea nitrogen, serum calcium, serum albumin, and lactic acid) from 398 patients (43 expired and 355 non-expired) for the prediction of death up to 48 h prior to patient expiration. The resulting support vector machine model achieved 91% sensitivity and 91% specificity (AUC 0.93) for predicting patient expiration status on held-out testing data. Finally, we examine the impact of each feature and feature combination in light of different model predictions, highlighting important patterns of laboratory values that impact outcomes in SARS-CoV-2 infection.

Indexed as

Blood Chemical AnalysisDecision Support TechniquesSupport Vector MachineBiomarkersCOVID-19HumansPredictive Value of TestsPrognosisReproducibility of ResultsRetrospective StudiesRisk AssessmentRisk FactorsBiomarkers

Identifiers

PMID33067522
PMCPMC7567420
OpenAlexW3093068007

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.