Evidence map›Paper›PMID 33066022›Full record

ArticleInternational journal of environmental research and public health2020

Malaria Transmission and Spillover across the Peru-Ecuador Border: A Spatiotemporal Analysis.

Annika K Gunderson, Rani E Kumar, Cristina Recalde-Coronel, Luis E Vasco, Andree Valle-Campos, Carlos F Mena, Benjamin F Zaitchik, Andres G Lescano, William K Pan, Mark M Janko

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in International journal of environmental research and public health, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 18 papers, 3 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
18citing papers in PubMed, 3 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

18 citing papers in PubMed, 3 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Pooled it
  3. Pooled it
  4. Article
  5. Article
  6. Article
  7. Article
  8. Article
  9. Article
  10. Article
  11. Article
  12. Article
  13. Article
  14. Review
  15. Article
  16. Article
  17. Article
  18. Review
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

10 authors.

Annika K GundersonDuke Global Health Institute, Duke University, Durham, NC 27710, USA.
Rani E KumarNicholas School of the Environment, Duke University, Durham, NC 27710, USA.
Cristina Recalde-CoronelDepartment of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Johns Hopkins University, 327 Olin Hall, 3400 N. Charles Street, Baltimore, MD 21218, USA.ORCID 0000-0003-3984-895X
Luis E VascoInstituto de Geografía, Colegio de Ciencias Biológicas y Ambientales, Universidad San Francisco de Quito, Quito 170104, Ecuador.
Andree Valle-CamposEmerge, Emerging Diseases and Climate Change Research Unit, Universidad Cayetano Peruana Heredia, San Martín de Porres 15102, Peru.ORCID 0000-0002-7779-481X
Carlos F MenaInstituto de Geografía, Colegio de Ciencias Biológicas y Ambientales, Universidad San Francisco de Quito, Quito 170104, Ecuador.ORCID 0000-0003-0825-6476
Benjamin F ZaitchikDepartment of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Johns Hopkins University, 327 Olin Hall, 3400 N. Charles Street, Baltimore, MD 21218, USA.
Andres G LescanoEmerge, Emerging Diseases and Climate Change Research Unit, Universidad Cayetano Peruana Heredia, San Martín de Porres 15102, Peru.ORCID 0000-0001-9779-633X
William K PanDuke Global Health Institute, Duke University, Durham, NC 27710, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-7407-7399
Mark M JankoInstitute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98121, USA.

Funding

Peru Infectious Diseases Epidemiology Research Training ConsortiumD43TW007393 · FIC · UNIVERSIDAD PERUANA CAYETANO HEREDIA · PI Andres G Lescano · 2005 to 2026
$5.9M
FIC NIH HHS D43 TW007393
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Border regions have been implicated as important hot spots of malaria transmission, particularly in Latin America, where free movement rights mean that residents can cross borders using just a national ID. Additionally, rural livelihoods largely depend on short-term migrants traveling across borders via the Amazon's river networks to work in extractive industries, such as logging. As a result, there is likely considerable spillover across country borders, particularly along the border between Peru and Ecuador. This border region exhibits a steep gradient of transmission intensity, with Peru having a much higher incidence of malaria than Ecuador. In this paper, we integrate 13 years of weekly malaria surveillance data collected at the district level in Peru and the canton level in Ecuador, and leverage hierarchical Bayesian spatiotemporal regression models to identify the degree to which malaria transmission in Ecuador is influenced by transmission in Peru. We find that increased case incidence in Peruvian districts that border the Ecuadorian Amazon is associated with increased incidence in Ecuador. Our results highlight the importance of coordinated malaria control across borders.

Indexed as

Bayes TheoremEcuadorHumansMalariaPeruSpatio-Temporal AnalysisBayesian methodshuman mobilitymalariaspatiotemporal modelingspillover

Identifiers

PMID33066022
PMCPMC7600436

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.