ArticlePloS one2020
Modified-Chronic Disease Score (M-CDS): Predicting the individual risk of death using drug prescriptions.
Article in PloS one, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 8 papers.
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8 citing papers in PubMed.
- Comorbidities and Concomitant Medications in Middle-Aged Japanese People According to the Charlson Comorbidity Index and Age: Results of the NDB-K7Ps-Study-3.Epidemiologia (Basel, Switzerland) · 2026Article
- Incidence and associated factors of emergency department visits for violent behaviour: a retrospective cohort study in Romagna, Italy.BMJ open · 2026Article
- General practice organisational models and heart failure medication adherence: multi-level evidence from a regional cohort in Emilia-Romagna, Italy.International journal for quality in health care : journal of the International Society for Quality in Health Care · 2026Article
- Evaluation of a score for identifying hospital stays that trigger a pharmacist intervention: integration into a clinical decision support system.JAMIA open · 2025Article
- Validity of the Updated Rx-Risk Index as a Disease Identification and Risk-Adjustment Tool for Use in Observational Health Studies.Clinical interventions in aging · 2025Article
- Identifying patient subgroups with different trends of patient-reported outcomes (PROMs) after elective knee arthroplasty.BMC musculoskeletal disorders · 2023Article
- Patient reported outcomes measures (PROMs) trajectories after elective hip arthroplasty: a latent class and growth mixture analysis.Journal of patient-reported outcomes · 2022Article
- Variations of the quality of care during the COVID-19 pandemic affected the mortality rate of non-COVID-19 patients with hip fracture.PloS one · 2022Article
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Abstract
backgroundEstimating the morbidity of a population is strategic for health systems to improve healthcare. In recent years administrative databases have been increasingly used to predict health outcomes. In 1992, Von Korff proposed a Chronic Disease Score (CDS) to predict 1-year mortality by only using drug prescription data. Because pharmacotherapy underwent many changes over the last 3 decades, the original version of the CDS has limitations. The aim of this paper is to report on the development of the modified version of the CDS.
methodsThe modified CDS (M-CDS) was developed using 33 variables (from drug prescriptions within two-year before 01/01/2018) to predict one-year mortality in Bologna residents aged ≥50 years. The population was split into training and testing sets for internal validation. Score weights were estimated in the training set using Cox regression model with LASSO procedure for variables selection. The external validation was carried out on the Imola population. The predictive ability of M-CDS was assessed using ROC analysis and compared with that of the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI), that is based on hospital data only, and of the Multisource Comorbidity Score (MCS), which uses hospital and pharmaceutical data.
resultsThe predictive ability of M-CDS was similar in the training and testing sets (AUC 95% CI: training [0.760-0.770] vs. testing [0.750-0.772]) and in the external population (Imola AUC 95% CI [0.756-0.781]). M-CDS was significantly better than CCI (M-CDS AUC = 0.761, 95% CI [0.750-0.772] vs. CCI-AUC = 0.696, 95% CI [0.681-0.711]). No significant difference was found between M-CDS and MCS (MCS AUC = 0.762, 95% CI [0.749-0.775]).
conclusionsM-CDS, using only drug prescriptions, has a better performance than the CCI score in predicting 1-year mortality, and is not inferior to the multisource comorbidity score. M-CDS can be used for population risk stratification, for risk-adjustment in association studies and to predict the individual risk of death.
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