Evidence map›Paper›PMID 33060080›Full record

Observational studyBMJ open2020

Raised inflammatory markers as a predictor of one-year mortality: a cohort study in primary care in the UK using electronic health record data.

Jessica Watson, Penny Whiting, Chris Salisbury, Jonathan Banks, Willie Hamilton

Abstract readObservational Study
In one paragraph

Observational study in BMJ open, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 5 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
5citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

5 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
  2. Article
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  5. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

5 authors.

Jessica WatsonCentre for Academic Primary Care, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK jessica.watson@bristol.ac.uk.ORCID 0000-0002-8177-6438
Penny WhitingBristol Population Health Science Institute, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK.
Chris SalisburyCentre for Academic Primary Care, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-4378-3960
Jonathan BanksBristol Population Health Science Institute, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-3889-6098
Willie HamiltonUniversity of Exeter Medical School, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK.ORCID 0000-0003-1611-1373

Funding

Department of Health DRF-2016-09-034
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

objectivesIdentification of patients at increased mortality risk is important in the context of increasing multimorbidity and an ageing population, to help facilitate the planning and delivery of services. The aim of this study was to examine 1-year all-cause mortality in a cohort of primary care patients in whom inflammatory markers including C reactive protein (CRP), erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR) and plasma viscosity (PV), had been tested.

designObservational cohort study using general practitioner Electronic Health Records from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink, with linkage to Office for National Statistics (ONS) Death Registry.

settingUK Primary Care.

participants159 325 patients with inflammatory marker tests done in 2014 and 39 928 age, sex and practice-matched controls without inflammatory marker testing. ONS Death registry data were available for 109 966 participants. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: One-year mortality in those with raised inflammatory markers compared with normal inflammatory markers and untested controls. Subanalyses stratified 1-year mortality by age group, gender and cause of death.

resultsPatients with a raised inflammatory marker (n=47 797) had an overall 1-year all-cause mortality of 6.89%, compared with 1.41% in those with normal inflammatory markers (p<0.001) and 1.62% in untested controls. A raised CRP is associated with the highest mortality rate at 8.76% compared with 4.99% for ESR and 4.66% for PV. One-year mortality is higher in men with a raised inflammatory marker compared with women (9.78% vs 5.29%). The C-statistic of a simple mortality prediction model containing age, sex and CRP test result is 0.89.

conclusionsInflammatory markers are a strong predictor of all-cause mortality in primary care, with a C-statistic comparable to several previously developed frailty indices. Future research should consider the added value of CRP testing, in combination with other risk factors, to improve prediction of mortality in primary care. Evidence- based interventions for frailty are needed alongside predictive tools.

Indexed as

Electronic Health RecordsPrimary Health CareBlood SedimentationCohort StudiesFemaleHumansMaleUnited Kingdomchemical pathologyepidemiologygeriatric medicineprimary care

Identifiers

PMID33060080
PMCPMC7566728

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.