ArticleScientific reports2020
Modelling COVID 19 in the Basque Country from introduction to control measure response.
Article in Scientific reports, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 24 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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Who cites it
24 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Mathematical models for dengue fever epidemiology: A 10-year systematic review.Physics of life reviews · 2022Pooled it
- Prediction Models for Public Health Containment Measures on COVID-19 Using Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning: A Systematic Review.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2021Pooled it
- The impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 transmission and its effect on life expectancy in two European regions.BMC public health · 2025Article
- Modeling COVID-19 dynamics in the Basque Country: characterizing population immunity profile from 2020 to 2022.BMC infectious diseases · 2025Article
- Modelling COVID-19 mutant dynamics: understanding the interplay between viral evolution and disease transmission dynamics.Royal Society open science · 2024Article
- Impact of High Covid-19 Vaccination Rate in an Aging Population: Estimating Averted Hospitalizations and Deaths in the Basque Country, Spain Using Counterfactual Modeling.Journal of epidemiology and global health · 2024Article
- Modeling spillover dynamics: understanding emerging pathogens of public health concern.Scientific reports · 2024Article
- Transforming health care systems towards high-performance organizations: qualitative study based on learning from COVID-19 pandemic in the Basque Country (Spain).BMC health services research · 2024Article
- Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Vaccines for COVID-19 According to Sex, Comorbidity and Socioeconomic Status: A Population Study.PharmacoEconomics · 2024Article
- A Systematic Review of Artificial Intelligence Used to Predict Loneliness, Social Isolation, and Drug Use During the COVID-19 Pandemic.Journal of multidisciplinary healthcare · 2024Review
- The effect of mixed vaccination rollout strategy: A modelling study.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2023Article
- A Spatial Kinetic Model of Crowd Evacuation Dynamics with Infectious Disease Contagion.Bulletin of mathematical biology · 2023Article
- Changes in Social and Clinical Determinants of COVID-19 Outcomes Achieved by the Vaccination Program: A Nationwide Cohort Study.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2022Article
- EKF-SIRD model algorithm for predicting the coronavirus (COVID-19) spreading dynamics.Scientific reports · 2022Article
- Ranking the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions to counter COVID-19 in UK universities with vaccinated population.Scientific reports · 2022Article
- The role of mild and asymptomatic infections on COVID-19 vaccines performance: A modeling study.Journal of advanced research · 2022Article
- The medical and societal impact of big data analytics and artificial intelligence applications in combating pandemics: A review focused on Covid-19.Social science & medicine (1982) · 2022Review
- Short-Term and Long-Term COVID-19 Pandemic Forecasting Revisited with the Emergence of OMICRON Variant in Jordan.Vaccines · 2022Article
- Modeling the initial phase of COVID-19 epidemic: The role of age and disease severity in the Basque Country, Spain.PloS one · 2022Article
- Critical fluctuations in epidemic models explain COVID-19 post-lockdown dynamics.Scientific reports · 2021Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
5 authors.
Funding
Abstract
In March 2020, a multidisciplinary task force (so-called Basque Modelling Task Force, BMTF) was created to assist the Basque health managers and Government during the COVID-19 responses. BMTF is a modelling team, working on different approaches, including stochastic processes, statistical methods and artificial intelligence. Here we describe the efforts and challenges to develop a flexible modeling framework able to describe the dynamics observed for the tested positive cases, including the modelling development steps. The results obtained by a new stochastic SHARUCD model framework are presented. Our models differentiate mild and asymptomatic from severe infections prone to be hospitalized and were able to predict the course of the epidemic, providing important projections on the national health system's necessities during the increased population demand on hospital admissions. Short and longer-term predictions were tested with good results adjusted to the available epidemiological data. We have shown that the partial lockdown measures were effective and enough to slow down disease transmission in the Basque Country. The growth rate [Formula: see text] was calculated from the model and from the data and the implications for the reproduction ratio r are shown. The analysis of the growth rates from the data led to improved model versions describing after the exponential phase also the new information obtained during the phase of response to the control measures. This framework is now being used to monitor disease transmission while the country lockdown was gradually lifted, with insights to specific programs for a general policy of "social distancing" and home quarantining.
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