ArticleProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America2020
Seasonality and uncertainty in global COVID-19 growth rates.
Article in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 135 papers, 3 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
135 citing papers in PubMed, 3 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 265 citations in OpenAlex.
- Global meta-analysis of short-term associations between ambient temperature and pathogen-specific respiratory infections, 2004 to 2023.Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin · 2025Pooled it
- A meta-analysis result: Uneven influences of season, geo-spatial scale and latitude on relationship between meteorological factors and the COVID-19 transmission.Environmental research · 2022Pooled it
- The impact of geo-environmental factors on global COVID-19 transmission: A review of evidence and methodology.The Science of the total environment · 2022Pooled it
- Inferring Seasonal Modulation of Early SARS-CoV-2 Transmissibility from Cross-Country Environmental and Population-Level Predictors.Pathogens (Basel, Switzerland) · 2026Article
- CV19global: harmonized epidemiology, policy, mobility and weather indicators from two years and 54 countries.Scientific data · 2026Article
- AI-guided multi-omics analysis identifies NPC1-modulated susceptibility to SARS-CoV-2 infection under PMNature communications · 2026Article
- Article
- Semiannual seasonality of COVID-19 with alternating peaks in winter and summer.Frontiers in public health · 2026Article
- Bayesian uncertainty quantification to identify population level vaccine hesitancy behaviours.PloS one · 2026Article
- Post-pandemic shifts in pediatric respiratory pathogens and co-infection dynamics in Xi'an and surrounding areas: a large-scale retrospective study from 2021 to 2025.BMC infectious diseases · 2025Article
- Speaking Different Languages Impacts Size-Resolved Exhaled Breath Aerosol Particle Emission.Environment & health (Washington, D.C.) · 2025Article
- Clustering-based methodology for comparing multi-characteristic epidemiological dynamics with application to COVID-19 epidemiology in Europe.Royal Society open science · 2025Article
- Seasonal and periodic patterns in US COVID-19 mortality using the Variable Bandpass Periodic Block Bootstrap.PloS one · 2025Article
- Does land cover affect the growth rate of COVID-19? Rethinking sustainable habitat from the One Health perspective using data from 12 cities during lockdown in Hubei Province, China.Frontiers in public health · 2025Article
- Comparing lagged impacts of mobility changes and environmental factors on COVID-19 waves in rural and urban India: A Bayesian spatiotemporal modelling study.PLOS global public health · 2025Article
- Oscillating spatiotemporal patterns of COVID-19 in the United States.Scientific reports · 2024Article
- Non-linear effects of meteorological factors on COVID-19: An analysis of 440 counties in the americas.Heliyon · 2024Article
- Dependence on relative humidity in the formation of reactive oxygen species in water droplets.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2024Article
- Risk, sanctions and norm change: the formation and decay of social distancing norms.Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences · 2024Article
- SARS-CoV-2 infection in animals: Patterns, transmission routes, and drivers.Eco-Environment & Health · 2024Review
75 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
2 authors at 1 institution in 1 country.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
The virus causing COVID-19 has spread rapidly worldwide and threatens millions of lives. It remains unknown, as of April 2020, whether summer weather will reduce its spread, thereby alleviating strains on hospitals and providing time for vaccine development. Early insights from laboratory studies and research on related viruses predicted that COVID-19 would decline with higher temperatures, humidity, and ultraviolet (UV) light. Using current, fine-scaled weather data and global reports of infections, we develop a model that explains 36% of the variation in maximum COVID-19 growth rates based on weather and demography (17%) and country-specific effects (19%). UV light is most strongly associated with lower COVID-19 growth. Projections suggest that, without intervention, COVID-19 will decrease temporarily during summer, rebound by autumn, and peak next winter. Validation based on data from May and June 2020 confirms the generality of the climate signal detected. However, uncertainty remains high, and the probability of weekly doubling rates remains >20% throughout summer in the absence of social interventions. Consequently, aggressive interventions will likely be needed despite seasonal trends.
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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.