ArticlePloS one2020
State-level variation of initial COVID-19 dynamics in the United States.
Article in PloS one, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 49 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
49 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Pooled it
- Effects of the built environment and human factors on the spread of COVID-19: A systematic literature review.The Science of the total environment · 2022Pooled it
- Societal values versus individual rights with respect to public health related practices during the COVID-19 pandemic in the U.S.PloS one · 2026Article
- Article
- The impact of policy restrictions and mobility changes on excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic in The Netherlands, 2020-2022.PloS one · 2026Article
- Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis Care Engagement Among Men Who Have Sex with Men in the United States During the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Scoping Review.AIDS and behavior · 2025Article
- Optimal Annual COVID-19 Vaccine Boosting Dates Following Previous Booster Vaccination or Breakthrough Infection.Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America · 2025Article
- Association of socio-demographic factors with clinical outcome among hospitalized patients in first and second waves of COVID-19 pandemic: Study from the developing world.Journal of family medicine and primary care · 2024Article
- Risk perceptions and behaviors concerning rural tourism and economic-political drivers of COVID-19 policy in 2020.PloS one · 2024Article
- The politics of COVID-19: Differences between U.S. red and blue states in COVID-19 regulations and deaths.Health policy OPEN · 2023Article
- Forecasting local hospital bed demand for COVID-19 using on-request simulations.Scientific reports · 2023Article
- Temporal and Probabilistic Comparisons of Epidemic Interventions.Bulletin of mathematical biology · 2023Article
- Estimating the impact of COVID-19 vaccine inequities: a modeling study.Nature communications · 2023Article
- Financial, resource, and psychological impacts of COVID-19 on U.S. College students: Who is impacted and what are the implications for adjustment and well-being?Children and youth services review · 2023Article
- The unintended consequences of inconsistent closure policies and mobility restrictions during epidemics.BMC global and public health · 2023Article
- Estimating the impact of COVID-19 vaccine allocation inequities: a modeling study.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2022Article
- Heightened religiosity proactively and reactively responds to the COVID-19 pandemic across the globe: Novel insights from the parasite-stress theory of sociality and the behavioral immune system theory.International journal of intercultural relations : IJIR · 2022Article
- COVID-19's impact on visitation behavior to US national parks from communities of color: evidence from mobile phone data.Scientific reports · 2022Article
- Geo-clusters and socio-demographic profiles at village-level associated with COVID-19 incidence in the metropolitan city of Jakarta: An ecological study.Transboundary and emerging diseases · 2022Article
- A framework for mapping and monitoring human-ocean interactions in near real-time during COVID-19 and beyond.Marine policy · 2022Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
2 authors.
Funding
Abstract
During an epidemic, metrics such as R0, doubling time, and case fatality rates are important in understanding and predicting the course of an epidemic. However, if collected over country or regional scales, these metrics hide important smaller-scale, local dynamics. We examine how commonly used epidemiological metrics differ for each individual state within the United States during the initial COVID-19 outbreak. We found that the detected case number and trajectory of early detected cases differ considerably between states. We then test for correlations with testing protocols, interventions and population characteristics. We find that epidemic dynamics were most strongly associated with non-pharmaceutical government actions during the early phase of the epidemic. In particular, early social distancing restrictions, particularly on restaurant operations, was correlated with increased doubling times. Interestingly, we also found that states with little tolerance for deviance from enforced rules saw faster early epidemic growth. Together with other correlates such as population density, our results highlight the different factors involved in the heterogeneity in the early spread of COVID-19 throughout the United States. Although individual states are clearly not independent, they can serve as small, natural experiments in how different demographic patterns and government responses can impact the course of an epidemic.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.