Evidence map›Paper›PMID 33046334›Full record

ArticleSchizophrenia research2021

Incorporating cortisol into the NAPLS2 individualized risk calculator for prediction of psychosis.

Michelle A Worthington, Elaine F Walker, Jean Addington, Carrie E Bearden, Kristin S Cadenhead, Barbara A Cornblatt, Daniel H Mathalon, Thomas H McGlashan, Diana O Perkins, Larry J Seidman and 3 more

Open access · greenAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Schizophrenia research, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 17 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
17citing papers in PubMed
1.6field-weighted citation impact, top 17% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

17 citing papers in PubMed, 26 citations in OpenAlex.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

13 authors at 8 institutions in 2 countries.

Michelle A WorthingtonDepartment of Psychology, Yale University, New Haven, CT, United States of America.
Elaine F WalkerDepartment of Psychology and Psychiatry, Emory University, Atlanta, GA, United States of America.
Jean AddingtonDepartment of Psychiatry, Hotchkiss Brain Institute, Calgary, Alberta, Canada.
Carrie E BeardenDepartment of Psychiatry and Biobehavioral Sciences and Psychology, UCLA, Los Angeles, CA, United States of America.
Kristin S CadenheadDepartment of Psychiatry, UCSD, San Diego, CA, United States of America.
Barbara A CornblattDepartment of Psychiatry, Zucker Hillside Hospital, Long Island, NY, United States of America.
Daniel H MathalonDepartment of Psychiatry, UCSF, SFVA Medical Center, San Francisco, CA, United States of America.
Thomas H McGlashanDepartment of Psychiatry, Yale University, New Haven, CT, United States of America.
Diana O PerkinsDepartment of Psychiatry, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC, United States of America.
Larry J SeidmanDepartment of Psychiatry, Harvard Medical School at Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center, Boston, MA, United States of America; Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, MA, United States of America.
Ming T TsuangDepartment of Psychiatry, UCSD, San Diego, CA, United States of America.
Scott W WoodsDepartment of Psychiatry, Yale University, New Haven, CT, United States of America.
Tyrone D CannonDepartment of Psychology, Yale University, New Haven, CT, United States of America; Department of Psychiatry, Yale University, New Haven, CT, United States of America. Electronic address: tyrone.cannon@yale.edu.
Yale University · USUniversity of California San Diego · USBeth Israel Deaconess Medical Center · USEmory University · USNeurobehavioral Systems · USOntario Brain Institute · CAUniversity of North Carolina at Chapel Hill · USZucker Hillside Hospital · US

Funding

Yale Clinical and Translational Science Award (U Component)UL1TR001863 · NCATS · YALE UNIVERSITY · PI John H. Krystal, LUCILA OHNO-MACHADO · 2016 to 2026
$102.9M
STRESS AND EMOTIONAL REACTIVITYP50MH066286 · NIMH · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA LOS ANGELES · PI YEE-BRADBURY, CINDY M. · 2003 to 2014
$18.6M
1/9 Predictors and Mechanisms of Conversion to PsychosisU01MH081902 · NIMH · YALE UNIVERSITY · PI CANNON, TYRONE D · 2008 to 2018
$12.4M
5/9 Predictors and Mechanisms of Conversion to PsychosisU01MH082004 · NIMH · UNIV OF NORTH CAROLINA CHAPEL HILL · PI PERKINS, DIANA O. · 2008 to 2018
$7.5M
Administrative Supplement Harmonization of At Risk Multisite Observational Networks for Youth(HARMONY)U01MH081928 · NIMH · BETH ISRAEL DEACONESS MEDICAL CENTER · PI STONE, WILLIAM SETH · 2008 to 2018
$7.1M
4/9-Predictors and Mechanisms of Conversion to PsychosisU01MH081857 · NIMH · FEINSTEIN INSTITUTE FOR MEDICAL RESEARCH · PI CORNBLATT, BARBARA A. · 2008 to 2018
$6.2M
8/9 Predictors and Mechanisms of Conversion to PsychosisU01MH082022 · NIMH · YALE UNIVERSITY · PI WOODS, SCOTT W · 2008 to 2018
$6.0M
2/9 - Predictors and Mechanisms of Conversion to PsychosisU01MH081988 · NIMH · EMORY UNIVERSITY · PI WALKER, ELAINE FRAN · 2008 to 2018
$5.4M
6/9-Predictors and Mechanisms of Conversion to PsychosisU01MH081944 · NIMH · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, SAN DIEGO · PI CADENHEAD, KRISTIN S. · 2008 to 2018
$4.9M
Functional Brain Abnormalities in the Schizophrenia ProdromeR01MH076989 · NIMH · YALE UNIVERSITY · PI MATHALON, DANIEL H · 2007 to 2014
$2.3M
Enhancing the Prospective Prediction of PsychosisU01MH066069 · NIMH · UNIV OF NORTH CAROLINA CHAPEL HILL · PI PERKINS, DIANA O. · 2003 to 2007
$1.5M
Enhancing the Prospective Prediction of PsychosisU01MH066134 · NIMH · CENTRE FOR ADDICTION AND MENTAL HEALTH · PI ADDINGTON, JEAN M · 2003 to 2007
$869k
NCATS NIH HHS UL1 TR001863NIMH NIH HHS P50 MH066286NIMH NIH HHS R01 MH076989NIMH NIH HHS U01 MH066069NIMH NIH HHS U01 MH066134NIMH NIH HHS U01 MH081857NIMH NIH HHS U01 MH081902NIMH NIH HHS U01 MH081928NIMH NIH HHS U01 MH081944NIMH NIH HHS U01 MH081988NIMH NIH HHS U01 MH082004NIMH NIH HHS U01 MH082022
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundRisk calculators are useful tools that can help clinicians and researchers better understand an individual's risk of conversion to psychosis. The North American Prodrome Longitudinal Study (NAPLS2) Individualized Risk Calculator has good predictive accuracy but could be potentially improved by the inclusion of a biomarker. Baseline cortisol, a measure of hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) axis functioning that is impacted by biological vulnerability to stress and exposure to environmental stressors, has been shown to be higher among individuals at clinical high-risk for psychosis (CHRP) who eventually convert to psychosis than those who do not. We sought to determine whether the addition of baseline cortisol to the NAPLS2 risk calculator improved the performance of the risk calculator.

methodsParticipants were drawn from the NAPLS2 study. A subset of NAPLS2 participants provided salivary cortisol samples. A multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression evaluated the likelihood of an individual's eventual conversion to psychosis based on demographic and clinical variables in addition to baseline cortisol levels.

resultsA total of 417 NAPLS2 participants provided salivary cortisol and were included in the analysis. Higher levels of cortisol were predictive of conversion to psychosis in a univariate model (C-index = 0.59, HR = 21.5, p-value = 0.004). The inclusion of cortisol in the risk calculator model resulted in a statistically significant improvement in performance from the original risk calculator model (C-index = 0.78, SE = 0.028).

conclusionsSalivary cortisol is an inexpensive and non-invasive biomarker that could improve individual predictions about conversion to psychosis and treatment decisions for CHR-P individuals.

Indexed as

HydrocortisonePsychotic DisordersHumansHypothalamo-Hypophyseal SystemLongitudinal StudiesProdromal SymptomsHydrocortisoneClinical high-riskCortisolPredictionPsychosisRisk calculatorSurvival analysis

Identifiers

PMID33046334
PMCPMC8287972
OpenAlexW3092527912

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.