Evidence map›Paper›PMID 33044958›Full record

ArticlePLoS neglected tropical diseases2020

Defining a prevalence level to describe the elimination of Lymphatic Filariasis (LF) transmission and designing monitoring & evaluating (M&E) programmes post the cessation of mass drug administration (MDA).

Benjamin S Collyer, Michael A Irvine, T Deidre Hollingsworth, Mark Bradley, Roy M Anderson

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in PLoS neglected tropical diseases, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 12 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
12citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

12 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
  2. Review
  3. Article
  4. Article
  5. Article
  6. Review
  7. Article
  8. Article
  9. Article
  10. What Can Modeling Tell Us About Sustainable End Points for Neglected Tropical Diseases?Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America · 2021
    Article
  11. Modelling the Impact of Vector Control on Lymphatic Filariasis Programs: Current Approaches and Limitations.Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America · 2021
    Review
  12. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

5 authors.

Benjamin S CollyerDepartment of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, St Mary's Campus, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom.ORCID 0000-0002-6773-408X
Michael A IrvineInstitute of Applied Mathematics, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada.
T Deidre HollingsworthBig Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom.
Mark BradleyGlobal Health Program, GlaxoSmithKline (GSK), Brentford, United Kingdom.ORCID 0000-0001-7377-3213
Roy M AndersonDepartment of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, St Mary's Campus, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom.

Funding

Medical Research Council MR/R015600/1
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

The global decline in prevalence of lymphatic filariasis has been one of the major successes of the WHO's NTD programme. The recommended strategy of intensive, community-wide mass drug administration, aims to break localised transmission by either reducing the prevalence of microfilaria positive infections to below 1%, or antigen positive infections to below 2%. After the threshold is reached, and mass drug administration is stopped, geographically defined evaluation units must pass Transmission Assessment Surveys to demonstrate that transmission has been interrupted. In this study, we use an empirically parameterised stochastic transmission model to investigate the appropriateness of 1% microfilaria-positive prevalence as a stopping threshold, and statistically evaluate how well various monitoring prevalence-thresholds predict elimination or disease resurgence in the future by calculating their predictive value. Our results support the 1% filaremia prevalence target as appropriate stopping criteria. However, because at low prevalence-levels random events dominate the transmission dynamics, we find single prevalence measurements have poor predictive power for predicting resurgence, which suggests alternative criteria for restarting MDA may be beneficial.

Indexed as

Epidemiological MonitoringAnimalsElephantiasis, FilarialFemaleFilarioideaHumansMaleMass Drug AdministrationModels, StatisticalMosquito VectorsPrevalence

Identifiers

PMID33044958
PMCPMC7549789

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.