ArticleAdvanced science (Weinheim, Baden-Wurttemberg, Germany)2020
Predicting the Outbreak Risks and Inflection Points of COVID-19 Pandemic with Classic Ecological Theories.
Article in Advanced science (Weinheim, Baden-Wurttemberg, Germany), 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 7 papers.
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Who cites it
7 citing papers in PubMed.
- Community heterogeneity scaling of gut microbiomes across Chinese ethnicities and lifestyles appears invariant.International microbiology : the official journal of the Spanish Society for Microbiology · 2026Article
- Gene and function diversity-area relationships in the inflammatory bowel disease fecal and mucosal microbiome.Frontiers in microbiology · 2025Article
- The potential of resilience indicators to anticipate infectious disease outbreaks, a systematic review and guide.PLOS global public health · 2023Article
- Visualizing the features of inflection point shown on a temporal bar graph using the data of COVID-19 pandemic.Medicine · 2022Article
- A simple model for how the risk of pandemics from different virus families depends on viral and human traits.Mathematical biosciences · 2022Article
- Spatial heterogeneity analysis of the human virome with Taylor's power law.Computational and structural biotechnology journal · 2021Article
- Predicting the Outbreak Risks and Inflection Points of COVID-19 Pandemic with Classic Ecological Theories.Advanced science (Weinheim, Baden-Wurttemberg, Germany) · 2020Article
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Authors and funding
1 author.
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Abstract
Predicting the outbreak risks and/or the inflection (turning or tipping) points of COVID-19 can be rather challenging. Here, it is addressed by modeling and simulation approaches guided by classic ecological theories and by treating the COVID-19 pandemic as a metapopulation dynamics problem. Three classic ecological theories are harnessed, including TPL (Taylor's power-law) and Ma's population aggregation critical density (PACD) for spatiotemporal aggregation/stability scaling, approximating virus metapopulation dynamics with Hubbell's neutral theory, and Ma's diversity-time relationship adapted for the infection-time relationship. Fisher-Information for detecting critical transitions and tipping points are also attempted. It is discovered that: (i) TPL aggregation/stability scaling parameter (
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