ArticleSystem dynamics review
The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic: simulation-based assessment of outbreak responses and postpeak strategies.
Article in System dynamics review. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 20 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
20 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 54 citations in OpenAlex.
- Predictive Models for Forecasting Public Health Scenarios: Practical Experiences Applied during the First Wave of the COVID-19 Pandemic.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2022Pooled it
- Multi-Criteria Performance Analysis Based on Physics of Decision - Application to COVID-19 and Future Pandemics.IEEE transactions on services computing · 2023Article
- Modeling the resilience of urban mobility when exposed to the COVID-19 pandemic: A qualitative system dynamics approach.Sustainable cities and society · 2023Article
- Article
- Operational analysis for COVID-19 testing: Determining the risk from asymptomatic infections.PloS one · 2023Article
- Evaluating the economic impacts of COVID-19 pandemic on shipping and port industry: A case study of the port of Shanghai.Ocean & coastal management · 2022Article
- A missing behavioural feedback in COVID-19 models is the key to several puzzles.BMJ global health · 2022Article
- Using simulation modelling and systems science to help contain COVID-19: A systematic review.Systems research and behavioral science · 2022Article
- Assessing the Dynamic Outcomes of Containment Strategies against COVID-19 under Different Public Health Governance Structures: A Comparison between Pakistan and Bangladesh.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2022Article
- Enhancing long-term forecasting: Learning from COVID-19 models.PLoS computational biology · 2022Article
- Anticipating human resilience and vulnerability on the path to 2030: What can we learn from COVID-19?Futures · 2022Article
- Collaboration-competition dilemma in flattening the COVID-19 curve.Production and operations management · 2022Article
- Measuring the impact of donations at the Bottom of the Pyramid (BoP) amid the COVID-19 pandemic.Annals of operations research · 2022Article
- Article
- Predicting Hospital Resource Use During COVID-19 Surges: A Simple but Flexible Discretely Integrated Condition Event Simulation of Individual Patient-Hospital Trajectories.Value in health : the journal of the International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research · 2021Article
- Weather, air pollution, and SARS-CoV-2 transmission: a global analysis.The Lancet. Planetary health · 2021Article
- Disrupting transitions: Qualitatively modelling the impact of Covid-19 on UK food and mobility provision.Environmental innovation and societal transitions · 2021Article
- Simulation-based what-if analysis for controlling the spread of Covid-19 in universities.PloS one · 2021Article
- Behavioral responses to risk promote vaccinating high-contact individuals first.System dynamics reviewArticle
- Behavioral dynamics of COVID-19: estimating underreporting, multiple waves, and adherence fatigue across 92 nations.System dynamics reviewArticle
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
1 author at 1 institution in 1 country.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
It is critical to understand the impact of distinct interventions on the ongoing coronavirus disease pandemic. I develop a behavioral dynamic epidemic model for multifaceted policy analysis comprising endogenous virus transmission (from severe or mild/asymptomatic cases), social contacts, and case testing and reporting. Calibration of the system dynamics model to the ongoing outbreak (31 December 2019-15 May 2020) using multiple time series data (reported cases and deaths, performed tests, and social interaction proxies) from six countries (South Korea, Germany, Italy, France, Sweden, and the United States) informs an explanatory analysis of outbreak responses and postpeak strategies. Specifically, I demonstrate, first, how timing and efforts of testing-capacity expansion and social-contact reduction interplay to affect outbreak dynamics and can explain a large share of cross-country variation in outbreak pathways. Second, absent at-scale availability of pharmaceutical solutions, postpeak social contacts must remain well below prepandemic values. Third, proactive (targeted) interventions, when complementing general deconfinement readiness, can considerably increase admissible postpeak social contacts. © 2020 System Dynamics Society.
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What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.