ArticleJournal of atherosclerosis and thrombosis2021
Estimation of 10-Year Risk of Death from Coronary Heart Disease, Stroke, and Cardiovascular Disease in a Pooled Analysis of Japanese Cohorts: EPOCH-JAPAN.
Article in Journal of atherosclerosis and thrombosis, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 17 papers.
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17 citing papers in PubMed, 21 citations in OpenAlex.
- The PREVENT Risk Equations and Cardiovascular Prevention in East Asia.Journal of atherosclerosis and thrombosis · 2026Review
- Jcvrisk: An R Package for Population-level Estimation of Cardiovascular Risk Scores in Japanese Adults.Journal of epidemiology · 2026Article
- Cardiovascular Risk Prediction in Older Adults.Current atherosclerosis reports · 2025Review
- External Validation of a Risk Prediction Model for Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Diseases in a Large National Health-Checkup and Claim Database.Journal of the American Heart Association · 2025Article
- Long-term risk of cardiovascular mortality according to age group and blood pressure categories of the latest guideline.Hypertension research : official journal of the Japanese Society of Hypertension · 2025Article
- The relationship and differences in the triglyceride-glucose index and all-cause mortality in patients with coronary heart disease combined with cerebrovascular and other comorbidities: an analysis of the MIMIC-IV database.Frontiers in cardiovascular medicine · 2025Article
- Cost-Effectiveness of Radiofrequency Renal Denervation for Uncontrolled Hypertension in Japan.Journal of clinical hypertension (Greenwich, Conn.) · 2024Article
- Comprehensive Health Assessment Using Risk Prediction for Multiple Diseases Based on Health Checkup Data.AJPM focus · 2024Article
- Pitfalls in Developing Machine Learning Models for Predicting Cardiovascular Diseases: Challenge and Solutions.Journal of medical Internet research · 2024Article
- Japan Atherosclerosis Society (JAS) Guidelines for Prevention of Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Diseases 2022.Journal of atherosclerosis and thrombosis · 2024Article
- Prediction of the 4-Year Incidence Risk of Ischemic Stroke in Healthy Japanese Adults: The Fukushima Health Database.Journal of atherosclerosis and thrombosis · 2024Article
- Impact of medical checkup parameters on major adverse cardiovascular events in the general Japanese population.Preventive medicine reports · 2024Article
- Female "Paradox" in Atrial Fibrillation-Role of Left Truncation Due to Competing Risks.Life (Basel, Switzerland) · 2023Article
- Impact of Body Mass Index on Obesity-Related Cancer and Cardiovascular Disease Mortality; The Japan Collaborative Cohort Study.Journal of atherosclerosis and thrombosis · 2022Article
- Impact of Major Cardiovascular Risk Factors on the Incidence of Cardiovascular Disease among Overweight and Non-Overweight Individuals: The Circulatory Risk in Communities Study (CIRCS).Journal of atherosclerosis and thrombosis · 2022Article
- Prediction of Lifetime Risk of Cardiovascular Disease Deaths Stratified by Sex in the Japanese Population.Journal of the American Heart Association · 2021Article
- Cardiac Risk in Prediction Models.Journal of atherosclerosis and thrombosis · 2021Article
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Authors and funding
12 authors at 9 institutions in 2 countries.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
aimsWe aimed to develop and validate risk prediction models to estimate the absolute 10-year risk of death from coronary heart disease (CHD), stroke, and cardiovascular disease (CVD).
methodsWe evaluated a total of 44,869 individuals aged 40-79 years from eight Japanese prospective cohorts to derive coefficients of risk equations using cohort-stratified Cox proportional hazard regression models. Discrimination (C-index) of the equation was examined in each cohort and summarised using random-effect meta-analyses. Calibration of the equation was assessed using Hosmer-Lemeshow chi-squared statistic.
resultsWithin a median follow-up of 12.7 years, we observed 765 deaths due to CVD (276 CHDs and 489 strokes). After backward selection, age, sex, current smoking, systolic blood pressure (SBP), proteinuria, prevalent diabetes mellitus, the ratio of total cholesterol to high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (TC/HDLC), interaction terms of age by SBP, and age by current smoking were retained as predictors for CHD. Sex was excluded in the stroke equation. We did not consider TC/HDLC as a risk factor for the stroke and CVD equations. The pooled C-indices for CHD, stroke, and CVD were 0.83, 0.80, and 0.81, respectively, and the corresponding p-values of the Hosmer-Lemeshow tests were 0.18, 0.003, and 0.25, respectively.
conclusionsRisk equations in the present study can adequately estimate the absolute 10-year risk of death from CHD, stroke, and CVD. Future work will evaluate the system as an education and risk communication tool for primary prevention of CHD and stroke.
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