ArticleGlobal change biology2021
Warming temperatures could expose more than 1.3 billion new people to Zika virus risk by 2050.
Article in Global change biology, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 71 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
71 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- A systematic review of the data, methods and environmental covariates used to map Aedes-borne arbovirus transmission risk.BMC infectious diseases · 2023Pooled it
- Review
- Neurological complications of Zika virus and their impact on quality of life: a narrative review.Tropical medicine and health · 2026Review
- Climate change and infectious diseases.Nature medicine · 2026Review
- The Second Silent Pandemic: Why Arboviruses Demand an Orchestrated Global Health Response.Pathogens (Basel, Switzerland) · 2026Review
- The Effect of Increased Temperature on Dengue Virus in the VectorTropical medicine and infectious disease · 2026Article
- Optimization of a malachite green-pyrophosphatase assay for the Zika virus RNA-dependent RNA polymerase and preliminary identification of natural product modulators.Frontiers in drug discovery · 2026Article
- Climate Change and Reproductive Health.Endocrine reviews · 2025Review
- Review
- Phenotypic variation in populations of the mosquito vector, Aedes aegypti, and implications for predicting the effects of temperature and climate change on dengue transmission.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2025Article
- Prenatal exposure to Zika virus shapes offspring neutrophil function in a sex-specific manner.Nature communications · 2025Article
- A Scoping Review of Mosquito Vector Range Shifts: Widespread Expansions and Evidence Gaps in Climate Attribution.Global change biology · 2025Article
- GeneDrive.jl: A decision tool to optimize biological vector control strategies under climate change.PLoS computational biology · 2025Article
- Exploring Metrics of Biological Diversity to Better Predict and Respond to Emerging Diseases.Integrative and comparative biology · 2025Review
- Molecules to spillover: how climate warming impacts mosquito-borne viruses.Current opinion in virology · 2025Review
- Effects of temperature and nutrition stress on Anopheles stephensi, an Indian urban malaria vector.Malaria journal · 2025Article
- Lumefantrine-doped cerium oxide nanoparticles: investigating their antibacterial and mosquito larvicidal properties.3 Biotech · 2025Article
- Assessing the risk of diseases with epidemic and pandemic potential in a changing world.Science advances · 2025Article
- A decade later, what have we learned from the Zika epidemic in children with intrauterine exposure?Lancet (London, England) · 2025Review
- Discovery of Inhibitors Targeting the RNA-Dependent RNA Polymerase of the Zika Virus.bioRxiv : the preprint server for biology · 2025Article
11 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
8 authors.
Funding
Abstract
In the aftermath of the 2015 pandemic of Zika virus (ZIKV), concerns over links between climate change and emerging arboviruses have become more pressing. Given the potential that much of the world might remain at risk from the virus, we used a previously established temperature-dependent transmission model for ZIKV to project climate change impacts on transmission suitability risk by mid-century (a generation into the future). Based on these model predictions, in the worst-case scenario, over 1.3 billion new people could face suitable transmission temperatures for ZIKV by 2050. The next generation will face substantially increased ZIKV transmission temperature suitability in North America and Europe, where naïve populations might be particularly vulnerable. Mitigating climate change even to moderate emissions scenarios could significantly reduce global expansion of climates suitable for ZIKV transmission, potentially protecting around 200 million people. Given these suitability risk projections, we suggest an increased priority on research establishing the immune history of vulnerable populations, modeling when and where the next ZIKV outbreak might occur, evaluating the efficacy of conventional and novel intervention measures, and increasing surveillance efforts to prevent further expansion of ZIKV.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.