ReviewAmerican journal of epidemiology2021
Statistical Estimation of the Reproductive Number From Case Notification Data.
Review in American journal of epidemiology, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 18 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
18 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Key questions for modelling COVID-19 exit strategies.Proceedings. Biological sciences · 2020Pooled it
- Non-Markovian dynamics and effective reproduction number in COVID-19: Evidence from Cyprus contact tracing data.PLoS computational biology · 2026Article
- Redefining and estimating the early-phase reproduction ratio for epidemic outbreaks in spatially structured populations.PLoS computational biology · 2026Article
- Unjustified Poisson assumptions lead to overconfident estimates of the effective reproductive number.Epidemiology and infection · 2026Article
- Robust estimation of the time-dependent reproduction number in the presence of weekend reporting effects.BMC global and public health · 2026Article
- Diphtheria transmission dynamics - Unveiling generation time and reproduction numbers from the 2022-2023 outbreak in Kano state, Nigeria.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2025Article
- Refining Estimation of the Instantaneous Reproduction Number During Early Pandemic Stages: Addressing Case-Reporting Variability and Serial Interval Uncertainty.American journal of epidemiology · 2024Article
- Prioritising older individuals for COVID-19 booster vaccination leads to optimal public health outcomes in a range of socio-economic settings.PLoS computational biology · 2024Article
- Accuracy of Inferences About the Reproductive Number and Superspreading Potential of SARS-CoV-2 with Incomplete Contact Tracing Data.Research square · 2023Article
- Why are different estimates of the effective reproductive number so different? A case study on COVID-19 in Germany.PLoS computational biology · 2023Article
- Article
- Heterogeneity in the onwards transmission risk between local and imported cases affects practical estimates of the time-dependent reproduction number.Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences · 2022Article
- EpiLPS: A fast and flexible Bayesian tool for estimation of the time-varying reproduction number.PLoS computational biology · 2022Article
- Article
- Impact of intervention on the spread of COVID-19 in India: A model based study.Journal of theoretical biology · 2021Article
- A clinician's primer on epidemiology for COVID-19.Med (New York, N.Y.) · 2021Review
- The risk of SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks in low prevalence settings following the removal of travel restrictions.Communications medicine · 2021Article
- Will an outbreak exceed available resources for control? Estimating the risk from invading pathogens using practical definitions of a severe epidemic.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2020Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
4 authors.
Funding
Abstract
The reproductive number, or reproduction number, is a valuable metric in understanding infectious disease dynamics. There is a large body of literature related to its use and estimation. In the last 15 years, there has been tremendous progress in statistically estimating this number using case notification data. These approaches are appealing because they are relevant in an ongoing outbreak (e.g., for assessing the effectiveness of interventions) and do not require substantial modeling expertise to be implemented. In this article, we describe these methods and the extensions that have been developed. We provide insight into the distinct interpretations of the estimators proposed and provide real data examples to illustrate how they are implemented. Finally, we conclude with a discussion of available software and opportunities for future development.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.