ArticleBMJ open2020
How have changes in death by cause and age group contributed to the recent stalling of life expectancy gains in Scotland? Comparative decomposition analysis of mortality data, 2000-2002 to 2015-2017.
Article in BMJ open, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 17 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
17 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- How much of the stalled mortality trends in Scotland and England can be attributed to obesity?BMJ open · 2022Pooled it
- Long-term negative divergence in mortality at ages 25-49 years between the United Kingdom and 21 peer countries between 1990 and 2019.European journal of epidemiology · 2026Article
- Austerity policies and falling life expectancy in disadvantaged areas in Scotland: a pre-pandemic decomposition analysis.European journal of public health · 2026Article
- Understanding changes to life expectancy and inequalities in the UK, Germany, and other high-income countries.Bundesgesundheitsblatt, Gesundheitsforschung, Gesundheitsschutz · 2025Review
- A new era of inequality: profound changes to mortality in England, Scotland, and 10 major British cities.European journal of public health · 2025Article
- Younger but sicker? Cohort trends in disease accumulation among middle-aged and older adults in Scotland using health-linked data from the Scottish Longitudinal Study.European journal of public health · 2024Article
- Influenza: cause or excuse? An analysis of flu's influence on worsening mortality trends in England and Wales, 2010-19.British medical bulletin · 2024Article
- Social security cuts and life expectancy: a longitudinal analysis of local authorities in England, Scotland and Wales.Journal of epidemiology and community health · 2023Article
- Prepandemic inequalities in the burden of disease in Scotland due to multiple deprivation: a retrospective study.BMJ public health · 2023Article
- Trends in psychological distress in Great Britain, 1991-2019: evidence from three representative surveys.Journal of epidemiology and community health · 2023Article
- Bearing the burden of austerity: how do changing mortality rates in the UK compare between men and women?Journal of epidemiology and community health · 2022Article
- Trends in the diversity of mortality causes and age-standardised mortality rates among subpopulations within Scotland, 2001-2019.SSM - population health · 2022Article
- Opioids in the Elderly Patients with Cognitive Impairment: A Narrative Review.Pain and therapy · 2022Review
- Changing mortality trends in countries and cities of the UK: a population-based trend analysis.BMJ open · 2020Article
- How bad are life expectancy trends across the UK, and what would it take to get back to previous trends?Journal of epidemiology and community health · 2020Article
- Observational
- Recent adverse mortality trends in Scotland: comparison with other high-income countries.BMJ open · 2019Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
8 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
objectiveAnnual gains in life expectancy in Scotland were slower in recent years than in the previous two decades. This analysis investigates how deaths in different age groups and from different causes have contributed to annual average change in life expectancy across two time periods: 2000-2002 to 2012-2014 and 2012-2014 to 2015-2017.
settingScotland.
methodsLife expectancy at birth was calculated from death and population counts, disaggregated by 5 year age group and by underlying cause of death. Arriaga's method of life expectancy decomposition was applied to produce estimates of the contribution of different age groups and underlying causes to changes in life expectancy at birth for the two periods.
resultsAnnualised gains in life expectancy between 2012-2014 and 2015-2017 were markedly smaller than in the earlier period. Almost all age groups saw worsening mortality trends, which deteriorated for most cause of death groups between 2012-2014 and 2015-2017. In particular, the previously observed substantial life expectancy gains due to reductions in mortality from circulatory causes, which most benefited those aged 55-84 years, more than halved. Mortality rates for those aged 30-54 years and 90+ years worsened, due in large part to increases in drug-related deaths, and dementia and Alzheimer's disease, respectively.
conclusionFuture research should seek to explain the changes in mortality trends for all age groups and causes. More investigation is required to establish to what extent shortcomings in the social security system and public services may be contributing to the adverse trends and preventing mitigation of the impact of other contributing factors, such as influenza outbreaks.
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