Evidence map›Paper›PMID 33029545›Full record

ArticleOrthopaedic journal of sports medicine2020

Machine Learning Outperforms Logistic Regression Analysis to Predict Next-Season NHL Player Injury: An Analysis of 2322 Players From 2007 to 2017.

Bryan C Luu, Audrey L Wright, Heather S Haeberle, Jaret M Karnuta, Mark S Schickendantz, Eric C Makhni, Benedict U Nwachukwu, Riley J Williams, Prem N Ramkumar

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Orthopaedic journal of sports medicine, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 29 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
29citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

29 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Review
  3. Predicting self-reported injury status among runners training for the New York City Marathon.PM & R : the journal of injury, function, and rehabilitation · 2026
    Observational
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  19. Supervised machine learning and associated algorithms: applications in orthopedic surgery.Knee surgery, sports traumatology, arthroscopy : official journal of the ESSKA · 2023
    Review
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

9 authors.

Bryan C LuuDepartment of Orthopedic Surgery, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, Texas, USA.
Audrey L WrightDepartment of Orthopedic Surgery, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, Texas, USA.
Heather S HaeberleMachine Learning Orthopaedics Lab, Cleveland Clinic, Cleveland, Ohio, USA.
Jaret M KarnutaMachine Learning Orthopaedics Lab, Cleveland Clinic, Cleveland, Ohio, USA.
Mark S SchickendantzMachine Learning Orthopaedics Lab, Cleveland Clinic, Cleveland, Ohio, USA.
Eric C MakhniDepartment of Orthopaedics, Henry Ford Health System, West Bloomfield, Michigan, USA.
Benedict U NwachukwuHospital for Special Surgery, New York, New York, USA.
Riley J WilliamsHospital for Special Surgery, New York, New York, USA.
Prem N RamkumarMachine Learning Orthopaedics Lab, Cleveland Clinic, Cleveland, Ohio, USA.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundThe opportunity to quantitatively predict next-season injury risk in the National Hockey League (NHL) has become a reality with the advent of advanced computational processors and machine learning (ML) architecture. Unlike static regression analyses that provide a momentary prediction, ML algorithms are dynamic in that they are readily capable of imbibing historical data to build a framework that improves with additive data. PURPOSE: To (1) characterize the epidemiology of publicly reported NHL injuries from 2007 to 2017, (2) determine the validity of a machine learning model in predicting next-season injury risk for both goalies and position players, and (3) compare the performance of modern ML algorithms versus logistic regression (LR) analyses. STUDY

designDescriptive epidemiology study.

methodsProfessional NHL player data were compiled for the years 2007 to 2017 from 2 publicly reported databases in the absence of an official NHL-approved database. Attributes acquired from each NHL player from each professional year included age, 85 performance metrics, and injury history. A total of 5 ML algorithms were created for both position player and goalie data: random forest, K Nearest Neighbors, Naïve Bayes, XGBoost, and Top 3 Ensemble. LR was also performed for both position player and goalie data. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) primarily determined validation.

resultsPlayer data were generated from 2109 position players and 213 goalies. For models predicting next-season injury risk for position players, XGBoost performed the best with an AUC of 0.948, compared with an AUC of 0.937 for LR (

conclusionAdvanced ML models such as XGBoost outperformed LR and demonstrated good to excellent capability of predicting whether a publicly reportable injury is likely to occur the next season.

Indexed as

injury predictionmachine learningNHLregression

Identifiers

PMID33029545
PMCPMC7522848

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LicenceCC BY-NC-ND
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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.