ArticleEpidemiology and infection2020
A predictive model for Covid-19 spread - with application to eight US states and how to end the pandemic.
Article in Epidemiology and infection, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 23 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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Who cites it
23 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Predictive Models for Forecasting Public Health Scenarios: Practical Experiences Applied during the First Wave of the COVID-19 Pandemic.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2022Pooled it
- Gauging the Impact of Artificial Intelligence and Mathematical Modeling in Response to the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Systematic Review.BioMed research international · 2022Pooled it
- Model-free prognostication of non-linear time series.PloS one · 2026Article
- Inferring epidemiological parameters under an infectious phylogeography model with visitor dynamics.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2025Article
- Deep learning in public health: Comparative predictive models for COVID-19 case forecasting.PloS one · 2024Article
- Accuracy of US CDC COVID-19 forecasting models.Frontiers in public health · 2024Article
- Behavioral aspects and the transmission of Monkeypox: A novel approach to determine the probability of transmission for sexually transmissible diseases.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2023Article
- Changes in mobility patterns during the COVID-19 pandemic in Zambia: Implications for the effectiveness of NPIs in Sub-Saharan Africa.PLOS global public health · 2023Article
- Cross-sectional Ct distributions from qPCR tests can provide an early warning signal for the spread of COVID-19 in communities.Frontiers in public health · 2023Article
- PAN-cODE: COVID-19 forecasting using conditional latent ODEs.Journal of the American Medical Informatics Association : JAMIA · 2022Article
- Analysis of a COVID-19 Epidemic Model with Seasonality.Bulletin of mathematical biology · 2022Article
- An evaluation of prospective COVID-19 modelling studies in the USA: from data to science translation.The Lancet. Digital health · 2022Review
- Using simulation modelling and systems science to help contain COVID-19: A systematic review.Systems research and behavioral science · 2022Article
- Human Mobility and Droplet-Transmissible Pediatric Infectious Diseases during the COVID-19 Pandemic.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2022Article
- An epidemiology-based model for the operational allocation of COVID-19 vaccines: A case study of Thailand.Computers & industrial engineering · 2022Article
- Exit strategies from lockdowns due to COVID-19: a scoping review.BMC public health · 2022Article
- How efficient is contact tracing in mitigating the spread of COVID-19? a mathematical modeling approach.Applied mathematical modelling · 2022Article
- Article
- Modeling approaches for early warning and monitoring of pandemic situations as well as decision support.Frontiers in public health · 2022Review
- Modeling the change in European and US COVID-19 death rates.PloS one · 2022Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
3 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
A compartmental model is proposed to predict the coronavirus 2019 (Covid-19) spread. It considers: detected and undetected infected populations, social sequestration, release from sequestration, plus reinfection. This model, consisting of seven coupled equations, has eight coefficients which are evaluated by fitting data for eight US states that make up 43% of the US population. The evolution of Covid-19 is fairly similar among the states: variations in contact and undetected recovery rates remain below 5%; however, variations are larger in recovery rate, death rate, reinfection rate, sequestration adherence and release rate from sequestration. Projections based on the current situation indicate that Covid-19 will become endemic. If lockdowns had been kept in place, the number of deaths would most likely have been significantly lower in states that opened up. Additionally, we predict that decreasing contact rate by 10%, or increasing testing by approximately 15%, or doubling lockdown compliance (from the current ~15% to ~30%) will eradicate infections in Texas within a year. Extending our fits for all of the US states, we predict about 11 million total infections (including undetected), and 8 million cumulative confirmed cases by 1 November 2020.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.