ArticlePloS one2020
BCG epidemiology supports its protection against COVID-19? A word of caution.
Article in PloS one, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 18 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
18 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 23 citations in OpenAlex.
- Effectiveness of Bacille Calmette-Guerin vaccination policies in reducing infection and mortality of COVID-19: a systematic review.Global health research and policy · 2022Pooled it
- The underlying mechanism behind the different outcomes of COVID-19 in children and adults.Frontiers in immunology · 2025Review
- BCG Vaccination: A potential tool against COVID-19 and COVID-19-like Black Swan incidents.International immunopharmacology · 2022Review
- The Natural Effect of BCG Vaccination on COVID-19: The Debate Continues.Frontiers in immunology · 2022Article
- Effect of BCG on Respiratory Complications Caused by COVID-19: A Scoping Review.International journal of general medicine · 2022Article
- COVID-19 and Beyond: Exploring Public Health Benefits from Non-Specific Effects of BCG Vaccination.Microorganisms · 2021Review
- 100 years of Bacillus Calmette-Guérin immunotherapy: from cattle to COVID-19.Nature reviews. Urology · 2021Review
- COVID-19 and earlier pandemics, sepsis, and vaccines: A historical perspective.Journal of intensive medicine · 2021Review
- Natural unblinding of BCG vaccination trials.Vaccine · 2021Article
- Background immunity: How important is it for SARS-CoV-2?Journal of medical virology · 2021Article
- Epidemiological characteristics of COVID-19 cases in non-Italian nationals notified to the Italian surveillance system.European journal of public health · 2021Observational
- Recent updates on the possible reasons for the low incidence and morbidity of COVID-19 cases in Africa.Bulletin of the National Research Centre · 2021Review
- On BCG Vaccine Protection from COVID-19: A Review.SN comprehensive clinical medicine · 2021Review
- Promise and challenges in the development of COVID-19 vaccines.Human vaccines & immunotherapeutics · 2020Article
- Exploring the causes of mild COVID-19 involvement in pediatric patients.New microbes and new infections · 2020Review
- Mandated Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) vaccination predicts flattened curves for the spread of COVID-19.Science advances · 2020Article
- SARS-CoV-2 Infections in the World: An Estimation of the Infected Population and a Measure of How Higher Detection Rates Save Lives.Frontiers in public health · 2020Article
- Does Bacille Calmette-Guérin Vaccination Provides Protection against COVID-19: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.Indian journal of community medicine : official publication of Indian Association of Preventive & Social MedicineReview
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
4 authors at 4 institutions in 2 countries.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
The COVID-19 pandemic, caused by type 2 Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2), puts all of us to the test. Epidemiologic observations could critically aid the development of protective measures to combat this devastating viral outbreak. Recent observations, linked nation based universal Bacillus Calmette-Guerin (BCG) vaccination to potential protection against morbidity and mortality from SARS-CoV-2, and received much attention in public media. We wished to validate the findings by examining the country based association between COVID-19 mortality per million population, or daily rates of COVID-19 case fatality (i.e. Death Per Case/Days of the endemic [dpc/d]) and the presence of universal BCG vaccination before 1980, or the year of the establishment of universal BCG vaccination. These associations were examined in multiple regression modeling based on publicly available databases on both April 3rd and May 15th of 2020. COVID-19 deaths per million negatively associated with universal BCG vaccination in a country before 1980 based on May 15th data, but this was not true for COVID-19 dpc/d on either of days of inquiry. We also demonstrate possible arbitrary selection bias in such analyses. Consequently, caution should be exercised amidst the publication surge on COVID-19, due to political/economical-, arbitrary selection-, and fear/anxiety related biases, which may obscure scientific rigor. We argue that global COVID-19 epidemiologic data is unreliable and therefore should be critically scrutinized before using it as a nidus for subsequent hypothesis driven scientific discovery.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.