ArticleHealth economics2021
Predicting quantity and quality of life with the Future Elderly Model.
Article in Health economics, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 18 papers.
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Who cites it
18 citing papers in PubMed.
- The effects of improved access to diabetes medications on risk of Alzheimer's disease and related dementias.Alzheimer's & dementia : the journal of the Alzheimer's Association · 2026Article
- The value of timely treatment with anti-amyloid therapy for Alzheimer's disease.Alzheimer's & dementia : the journal of the Alzheimer's Association · 2026Article
- The cost of dementia in the United States in 2026.Alzheimer's & dementia : the journal of the Alzheimer's Association · 2026Article
- A dynamic microsimulation method for estimating dementia costs in the United States.Alzheimer's & dementia : the journal of the Alzheimer's Association · 2026Article
- Article
- Productivity-adjusted life year loss among the late middle-aged adults in China.Communications medicine · 2025Article
- Lifetime burden of prescription medication for insomnia in middle-aged and older adults in the US: a microsimulation study.Lancet regional health. Americas · 2025Article
- A dynamic microsimulation of health outcomes in Mexico's aging population.The Gerontologist · 2025Article
- The burden of cognitive impairment.Alzheimer's & dementia : the journal of the Alzheimer's Association · 2025Article
- Disease burden, lifetime healthcare cost and long-term intervention impact projections among older adults in Singapore.Nature aging · 2025Article
- Health Risk and the Value of Life.Journal of public economics · 2025Article
- The urban-rural gap in older Americans' healthy life expectancy.The Journal of rural health : official journal of the American Rural Health Association and the National Rural Health Care Association · 2025Article
- Projections of functional dependence among the late middle-aged and older population from 2018-2048 in China: a dynamic microsimulation.Global health research and policy · 2024Article
- Defining interventions and metrics to improve diversity in CNS clinical trial participation: A SNO and RANO effort.Neuro-oncology · 2024Article
- Crosswalk between the Mini-Mental State Examination and the Telephone Interview for Cognitive Status (TICS-27/30/40).Alzheimer's & dementia : the journal of the Alzheimer's Association · 2022Article
- Article
- Using dynamic microsimulation to project cognitive function in the elderly population.PloS one · 2022Article
- Measuring the COVID-19 Mortality Burden in the United States : A Microsimulation Study.Annals of internal medicine · 2021Article
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Authors and funding
4 authors.
Funding
Abstract
The Future Elderly Model (FEM) is a microsimulation model designed to forecast health status, longevity, and a variety of economic outcomes. Compared to traditional actuarial models, microsimulation models provide greater opportunities for policy forecasting and richer detail, but they typically build upon smaller samples of data that may mitigate forecasting accuracy. We perform validation analyses of the FEM's mortality and quality of life forecasts using a version of the FEM estimated exclusively on early waves of data from the Health and Retirement Study. First, we compare FEM mortality and longevity projections to the actual mortality and longevity experience observed over the same period of time. We also compare the FEM results to actuarial forecasts of mortality and longevity during the same time. We find that FEM projections are generally in line with observed mortality rates and closely match longevity. Then, we assess the FEM's performance at predicting quality of life and longitudinal outcomes, two features missing from traditional actuarial models. Our analysis suggests the FEM performs at least as well as actuarial forecasts of mortality, while providing policy simulation features that are not available in actuarial models.
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