Evidence map›Paper›PMID 33024235›Full record

ArticleScientific reports2020

The age distribution of mortality from novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) suggests no large difference of susceptibility by age.

Ryosuke Omori, Ryota Matsuyama, Yukihiko Nakata

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Scientific reports, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 65 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
65citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

65 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Observational
  2. Article
  3. Article
  4. Jugan geon-gang gwa jilbyeong · 2023
    Article
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  17. Anti-coronavirus vaccines will not accelerate the transition of humanity to a non-pandemic period, but the pandemic will take fewer victims.Inflammation research : official journal of the European Histamine Research Society ... [et al.] · 2022
    Review
  18. The COVID-19 pandemic's effects on voter turnout.European journal of political economy · 2022
    Article
  19. Article
  20. Article

5 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

3 authors.

Ryosuke OmoriResearch Center for Zoonosis Control, Hokkaido University, Kita-20 Nishi-10, Kita-Ku, Sapporo, Hokkaido, 001-0020, Japan. omori@czc.hokudai.ac.jp.
Ryota MatsuyamaGraduate School of Biomedical and Health Sciences, Hiroshima University, Hiroshima, Japan.
Yukihiko NakataDepartment of Physics and Mathematics, Aoyama Gakuin University, Tokyo, Japan.

Funding

Core Research for Evolutional Science and Technology JPMJCR1413Japan Society for the Promotion of Science 16K20976Japan Society for the Promotion of Science 19K20393
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Among Italy, Spain, and Japan, the age distributions of COVID-19 mortality show only small variation even though the number of deaths per country shows large variation. To understand the determinant for this situation, we constructed a mathematical model describing the transmission dynamics and natural history of COVID-19 and analyzed the dataset of mortality in Italy, Spain, and Japan. We estimated the parameter which describes the age-dependency of susceptibility by fitting the model to reported data, including the effect of change in contact patterns during the epidemics of COVID-19, and the fraction of symptomatic infections. Our study revealed that if the mortality rate or the fraction of symptomatic infections among all COVID-19 cases does not depend on age, then unrealistically different age-dependencies of susceptibilities against COVID-19 infections between Italy, Japan, and Spain are required to explain the similar age distribution of mortality but different basic reproduction numbers (R

Indexed as

BetacoronavirusAdolescentAdultAgedAge DistributionAge FactorsBasic Reproduction NumberChildChild, PreschoolCoronavirus InfectionsCOVID-19Disease SusceptibilityFemaleHumansInfantInfant, Newborn

Identifiers

PMID33024235
PMCPMC7538918

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.