Effectiveness of Genomic Selection by Response to Selection for Winter Wheat Variety Improvement.

core ideasPrediction performance for winter wheat grain yield and end-use quality traits. Prediction accuracies evaluated by cross-validations are significantly overestimated. Nonparametric algorithms outperform the parametric alternatives in cross-year predictions. Strategically designing training population improves response to selection. Response to selection varies across growing seasons and environments. Considering the practicality of applying genomic selection (GS) in the line development stage of a hard red winter (HRW) wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) variety development program (VDP), the effectiveness of GS was evaluated by prediction accuracy and by the response to selection across field seasons that demonstrated challenges for crop improvement under significant climate variability. Important breeding targets for wheat improvement in the southern Great Plains of the United States, including grain yield, kernel weight, wheat protein content, and sodium dodecyl sulfate (SDS) sedimentation volume as a rapid test for predicting bread-making quality, were used to estimate the effectiveness of GS across harvest years from 2014 (drought) to 2016 (normal). In general, nonparametric algorithms reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS) and random forest (RF) produced higher accuracies in both same-year cross-validations (CVs) and cross-year predictions for the purpose of line selection. Further, the stability of GS performance was greatest for SDS sedimentation volume but least for wheat protein content. To ensure long-term genetic gain, our study on selection response suggested that across this sample of environmental variability, and though there are cases where phenotypic selection (PS) might be still preferred, training conducted under drought or in suboptimal conditions could provide an encouraging prediction outcome when selection decisions were made in normal conditions. However, it is not advisable to use training information collected from a normal season to predict trait performance under drought conditions. Finally, the superiority of response to selection was most evident if the training population (TP) can be optimized.