Evidence map›Paper›PMID 33015424›Full record

ArticleInfectious Disease Modelling2020

The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic course in Saudi Arabia: A dynamic epidemiological model.

Abdullah Murhaf Al-Khani, Mohamed Abdelghafour Khalifa, Abdulrahman Almazrou, Nazmus Saquib

Abstract read
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Article in Infectious Disease Modelling, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 15 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
15citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

15 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
  2. Article
  3. Improving and Extending STERGM Approximations Based on Cross-Sectional Data and Tie Durations.Journal of computational and graphical statistics : a joint publication of American Statistical Association, Institute of Mathematical Statistics, Interface Foundation of North America · 2024
    Article
  4. Article
  5. Article
  6. Article
  7. Article
  8. Article
  9. Review
  10. Economic Role of Population Density during Pandemics-A Comparative Analysis of Saudi Arabia and China.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2021
    Article
  11. Clinical features and outcomes of critically ill patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19): A multicenter cohort study.International journal of infectious diseases : IJID : official publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases · 2021
    Article
  12. Influence of Meteorological Factors on the COVID-19 Transmission with Season and Geographic Location.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2021
    Article
  13. Article
  14. Article
  15. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

4 authors.

Abdullah Murhaf Al-KhaniCollege of Medicine, Sulaiman Al Rajhi University, P.O. Box 777, Bukairyah, Al-Qassim, 51941, Saudi Arabia.
Mohamed Abdelghafour KhalifaCollege of Medicine, Sulaiman Al Rajhi University, P.O. Box 777, Bukairyah, Al-Qassim, 51941, Saudi Arabia.
Abdulrahman AlmazrouCollege of Medicine, Sulaiman Al Rajhi University, P.O. Box 777, Bukairyah, Al-Qassim, 51941, Saudi Arabia.
Nazmus SaquibCollege of Medicine, Sulaiman Al Rajhi University, P.O. Box 777, Bukairyah, Al-Qassim, 51941, Saudi Arabia.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

objectiveSaudi Arabia ranks second in the number of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases in the Eastern Mediterranean region. It houses the two most sacred religious places for Muslims: Mecca and Medina. It is important to know what the trend in case numbers will be in the next 4-6 months, especially during the Hajj pilgrimage season.

methodsEpidemiological data on COVID-19 were obtained from the Saudi Arabian Ministry of Health. A susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) prediction model was constructed to predict the trend in COVID-19 in Saudi Arabia in the next 6 months.

findingsThe model predicts that the number of active cases will peak by 22 May 2020. The cumulative infected cases are predicted to reach 70,321 at that time. The total number of infected individuals is estimated reach to 114,580 by the end of the pandemic.

conclusionOur estimates show that by the time the Hajj season commences in Saudi Arabia, the pandemic will be in the midst of its deceleration phase (phase 3). This information will likely be useful to policymakers in their management of the outbreak.

Indexed as

cfr, mortality proportion among the infectedCOVID-19, coronavirus disease 2019DCM, deterministic compartmental modele.dur, duration of the exposed statee.num, number of exposedEpidemiologyi.dur, duration of the infectious stateInfectious diseasei.num, number of infectedMERS-CoV, Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirusModellingOutbreaksp.num, number of protectedR0, basic reproduction numberr.num, number of recoveredSARS-CoV 2, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2SEIR, susceptible, exposed, infectious and recovered infectious disease prediction modelSIR, susceptible, infectious and recovered infectious disease prediction models.num, number of susceptibleSurveillance

Identifiers

PMID33015424
PMCPMC7521407

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LicenceCC BY-NC-ND
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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.