ArticleBioMed research international2020
Validation of a Vaginal Birth after Cesarean Delivery Prediction Model in Teaching Hospitals of Addis Ababa University: A Cross-Sectional Study.
Article in BioMed research international, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 16 papers, 4 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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Who cites it
16 citing papers in PubMed, 4 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 27 citations in OpenAlex.
- FIGO good practice recommendations for vaginal birth after cesarean section.International journal of gynaecology and obstetrics: the official organ of the International Federation of Gynaecology and Obstetrics · 2025Guideline
- Trend, prevalence and predictors of successful vaginal birth after caesarean section in Ethiopia: a systematic review and meta-analysis.International health · 2024Pooled it
- Vaginal birth after cesarean section and its associated factors in Ethiopia: a systematic review and meta-analysis.Scientific reports · 2023Pooled it
- Predictors of successful vaginal birth after a cesarean section in Ethiopia: a systematic review and meta-analysis.BMC pregnancy and childbirth · 2023Pooled it
- Outcome of trial of labour after one previous cesarean section at Federal Medical Centre, Bida, north central, Nigeria.Journal of the Turkish German Gynecological Association · 2025Article
- Prevalence of successful vaginal birth after caesarean section and its associated factors among women delivered in the university of Gondar comprehensive specialized referral hospital, Northwest Ethiopia.Contraception and reproductive medicine · 2025Article
- Development of a multivariate predictive nomogram among women with antepartum fetal death diagnosed at ≥ 34 weeks of gestation for outcome of TOLAC.Archives of gynecology and obstetrics · 2024Observational
- Predictors of successful trial of labor after cesarean section (TOLAC) in women with one prior transverse cesarean section at Tertiary Hospitals in northwest Ethiopia: a multicenter study.BMC pregnancy and childbirth · 2024Article
- Factors associated with successful vaginal birth after one lower uterine transverse cesarean section delivery.Scientific reports · 2023Article
- Validation of the Grobman model for successful vaginal birth after cesarean section in Jordanian women.BMC pregnancy and childbirth · 2023Article
- A Prognostic Study for the Development of Risk Prediction Model for the Success of Vaginal Birth Following a Cesarean Surgery at Felege Hiwot Comprehensive Specialized Hospital, Northwest Ethiopia.Risk management and healthcare policy · 2023Article
- Determinants of successful trial of labor after a previous cesarean delivery in East Wollega, Western Ethiopia: A case-control study.SAGE open medicine · 2022Article
- Prediction of vaginal birth after cesarean delivery in term gestations: a calculator without race and ethnicity.American journal of obstetrics and gynecology · 2021Article
- Factors Associated with Successful Vaginal Birth After a Primary Cesarean Section in Women with an Optimal Inter-Delivery Interval.International journal of women's health · 2021Article
- Determinants of Successful Vaginal Birth After Caesarean Section at Public Hospitals in Ambo Town, Oromia Region, Central Ethiopia: A Case-Control Study.Risk management and healthcare policy · 2021Article
- Predictors of success of trial of labor after cesarean section: A nested case-control study at public hospitals in Eastern Ethiopia.Women's health (London, England)Article
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Authors and funding
4 authors at 4 institutions in 2 countries.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundExternal validation of a vaginal birth after cesarean delivery (VBAC) prediction model is important before implementation in other settings. The primary aim of this study is to validate the Grobman prenatal VBAC calculator in the Ethiopian setting. Secondarily, the study was aimed at developing and comparing a new VBAC model that includes both the prenatal and intrapartum variables.
methodsA cross-sectional survey was conducted, complemented by a medical chart review of 268 women admitted at three teaching hospitals of Addis Ababa University and who underwent a trial of labor after one prior cesarean birth. Maternal age, prepregnancy BMI, prior vaginal delivery, prior VBAC, and prior cesarean delivery indication type were included in the Grobman model. Observed delivery outcomes were recorded and then compared with the outcomes predicted by the calculator. We assessed the predictive abilities of the Grobman model and the new model using a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was conducted to identify variables associated with successful VBAC.
resultsOut of the 268 participants, 186 (69.4%) (95% CI 57.5-81.3) had successful VBAC. The area under the ROC curve (AUC) of the Grobman model was 0.75 (95% CI 0.69-0.81). Notably, the novel model including both the prenatal and intrapartum variables had a better predictive value than the original model, with an AUC of 0.87 (95% CI 0.81-0.93). Prior VBAC, prepregnancy BMI, fetal membrane status, and fetal station at admission were predictors of VBAC in the newly developed logistic regression model.
conclusionsThe success rate of VBAC was similar to other sub-Saharan African countries. The Grobman model performed adequately in the study setting; however, the model including both the prenatal and intrapartum variables was more predictive. Thus, intrapartum predictors used in the new model should be considered during intrapartum counseling.
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