Wet and warm conditions contribute to the occurrence of the neotropical butterfly Ascia monuste orseis Godart (Lepidoptera: Pieridae) on Brassica crops.

Ascia monuste orseis Godart (Lepidoptera: Pieridae) is a neotropical butterfly distributed in South America. During the larval stage, this insect causes economic losses on Brassica crops. Wet and warm conditions are known to increase subspecies occurrence, but it remains unclear why these conditions are more suitable. In this study, we have shown that both conditions are highly favourable for A. monuste orseis. We determined the thermal requirements for immature development and then created models for A. monuste orseis occurrence using Climex algorithm. Two models were built: one for the year-round presence and other for seasonal suitability. We validated the models using subspecies occurrence records and monitoring in two Brazilian regions (Northeast and Southeast). The minimum, optimum and maximum temperature for immature development were estimated at 16.37, 29.16 and 34.95 °C, respectively. The model for year-round presence indicated tropical areas as highly suitable for A. monuste orseis occurrence (with 88% of accuracy) and the seasonal models showed unsuitable areas in some parts of South America during cold and dry periods. Such predictions were observed in the monitored areas where A. monuste orseis was not found. These results can be associated with the mortality caused by low temperature to immature stages and drought conditions that may induce adult migration to moist habitats. Thus, we suggest that A. monuste orseis occurs mainly during wet and warm seasons on Brassica crops due to deleterious effects caused by cold and dry conditions. This information can be used to improve A. monuste orseis management in Brassica crops.