Evidence map›Paper›PMID 33011641›Full record

ArticlePediatric neurology2020

Epilepsy Risk Prediction Model for Patients With Tuberous Sclerosis Complex.

Laura S Farach, Melissa A Richard, Philip J Lupo, Mustafa Sahin, Darcy A Krueger, Joyce Y Wu, Elizabeth M Bebin, Kit Sing Au, Hope Northrup, TACERN Study Group

Open access · greenAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Pediatric neurology, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 12 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
12citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
1.0field-weighted citation impact, top 25% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

12 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 22 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Pooled it
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  5. Observational
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

10 authors at 7 institutions in 1 country.

Laura S FarachDivision of Medical Genetics, Department of Pediatrics, McGovern Medical School, University of Texas Health Science Center at Houston, Houston, Texas. Electronic address: Laura.S.Farach@uth.tmc.edu.
Melissa A RichardDepartment of Pediatrics, Section of Hematology-Oncology, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, Texas.
Philip J LupoDepartment of Pediatrics, Section of Hematology-Oncology, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, Texas.
Mustafa SahinTranslational Neuroscience Center, Department of Neurology, Boston Children's Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts.
Darcy A KruegerDivision of Neurology, Cincinnati Children's Hospital Medical Center, Cincinnati, Ohio.
Joyce Y WuDivision of Pediatric Neurology, UCLA Mattel Children's Hospital and David Geffen School of Medicine, Los Angeles, California.
Elizabeth M BebinUniversity of Alabama at Birmingham, Birmingham, Alabama.
Kit Sing AuDivision of Medical Genetics, Department of Pediatrics, McGovern Medical School, University of Texas Health Science Center at Houston, Houston, Texas.
Hope NorthrupDivision of Medical Genetics, Department of Pediatrics, McGovern Medical School, University of Texas Health Science Center at Houston, Houston, Texas.
TACERN Study Group
The University of Texas Health Science Center at Houston · USUniversity of Alabama at Birmingham · USBaylor College of Medicine · USMattel Children's Hospital · USBoston Children's Hospital · USCincinnati Children's Hospital Medical Center · USThe University of Texas Health Science Center · US

Funding

Toward better characterization and clinical trial readiness for targeting neuropsychiatric manifestations in PTEN pathogenic variantsU54NS092090 · NINDS · BOSTON CHILDREN'S HOSPITAL · PI ANTONIO HARDAN · 2014 to 2026
$20.1M
Early Biomarkers of Autism Spectrum Disorders in infants with Tuberous SclerosisU01NS082320 · NINDS · BOSTON CHILDREN'S HOSPITAL · PI KRUEGER, DARCY, SAHIN, MUSTAFA · 2012 to 2018
$13.3M
NCATS NIH HHS L40 TR002174NINDS NIH HHS U01 NS082320NINDS NIH HHS U54 NS092090
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundIndividuals with tuberous sclerosis complex are at increased risk of epilepsy. Early seizure control improves developmental outcomes, making identifying at-risk patients critically important. Despite several identified risk factors, it remains difficult to predict. The purpose of the study was to evaluate the combined risk prediction of previously identified risk factors for epilepsy in individuals with tuberous sclerosis complex.

methodsThe study group (n = 333) consisted of individuals with tuberous sclerosis complex who were enrolled in the Tuberous Sclerosis Complex Autism Center of Excellence Research Network and UT TSC Biobank. The outcome was defined as having an epilepsy diagnosis. Potential risk factors included sex, TSC genotype, and tuber presence. Logistic regression was used to calculate the odds ratio and P value for the association between each variable and epilepsy. A clinical risk prediction model incorporating all risk factors was built. Area under the curve was calculated to characterize the full model's ability to discriminate individuals with tuberous sclerosis complex with and without epilepsy.

resultsThe strongest risk for epilepsy was presence of tubers (95% confidence interval: 2.39 to 10.89). Individuals with pathogenic TSC2 variants were three times more likely (95% confidence interval: 1.55 to 6.36) to develop seizures compared with those with tuberous sclerosis complex from other causes. The combination of risk factors resulted in an area under the curve 0.73.

conclusionsSimple characteristics of patients with tuberous sclerosis complex can be combined to successfully predict epilepsy risk. A risk assessment model that incorporates sex, TSC genotype, protective TSC2 missense variant, and tuber presence correctly predicts epilepsy in 73% of patients with tuberous sclerosis complex.

Indexed as

AdolescentAdultChildChild, PreschoolEpilepsyFemaleHumansLogistic ModelsMaleMiddle AgedOdds RatioPredictive Value of TestsRetrospective StudiesRisk AssessmentRisk FactorsROC CurveTuberous Sclerosis Complex 1 ProteinTuberous Sclerosis Complex 2 ProteinEpilepsyGenotypeRisk factorsRisk prediction modelSeizuresTuberous sclerosis complex (TSC)

Identifiers

PMID33011641
PMCPMC10461434
OpenAlexW3045552855

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceTDM
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.