ArticleClinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America2021
Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Transmission in the United States Before Versus After Relaxation of Statewide Social Distancing Measures.
Article in Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 16 papers, 3 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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Who cites it
16 citing papers in PubMed, 3 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Effectiveness of social distancing measures and lockdowns for reducing transmission of COVID-19 in non-healthcare, community-based settings.Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences · 2023Pooled it
- Pooled it
- Effectiveness of public health measures in reducing the incidence of covid-19, SARS-CoV-2 transmission, and covid-19 mortality: systematic review and meta-analysis.BMJ (Clinical research ed.) · 2021Pooled it
- The complex interplay between risk tolerance and the spread of infectious diseases.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2025Article
- Rates of Sudden Unexpected Infant Death Before and During the COVID-19 Pandemic.JAMA network open · 2024Article
- Trends in Nationally Notifiable Infectious Diseases in Humans and Animals during COVID-19 Pandemic, South Korea.Emerging infectious diseases · 2024Article
- The Effects of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions on COVID-19 Cases, Hospitalizations, and Mortality: A Systematic Literature Review and Meta-Analysis.AJPM focus · 2023Review
- Protective behavior and SARS-CoV-2 infection risk in the population - Results from the Gutenberg COVID-19 study.BMC public health · 2022Article
- Lebanese SARS-CoV-2 genomics: 24 months of the pandemic.Virus research · 2022Article
- Association of Jail Decarceration and Anticontagion Policies With COVID-19 Case Growth Rates in US Counties.JAMA network open · 2021Article
- Article
- Lag time between state-level policy interventions and change points in COVID-19 outcomes in the United States.Patterns (New York, N.Y.) · 2021Article
- Association of social distancing and face mask use with risk of COVID-19.Nature communications · 2021Article
- Fast school closures correspond with a lower rate of COVID-19 incidence and deaths in most countries.Informatics in medicine unlocked · 2021Article
- Relationship Between COVID-19 Cases and Vaccination Rates in New York State Counties.PRiMER (Leawood, Kan.) · 2021Article
- Association of social distancing and masking with risk of COVID-19.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2020Article
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Authors and funding
5 authors.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundWeeks after issuing social distancing orders to suppress severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission and reduce growth in cases of severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), all US states and the District of Columbia partially or fully relaxed these measures.
methodsWe identified all statewide social distancing measures that were implemented and/or relaxed in the United States between 10 March and 15 July 2020, triangulating data from state government and third-party sources. Using segmented linear regression, we estimated the extent to which relaxation of social distancing affected epidemic control, as indicated by the time-varying, state-specific effective reproduction number (Rt).
resultsIn the 8 weeks prior to relaxation, mean Rt declined by 0.012 units per day (95% confidence interval [CI], -.013 to -.012), and 46/51 jurisdictions achieved Rt < 1.0 by the date of relaxation. After relaxation of social distancing, Rt reversed course and began increasing by 0.007 units per day (95% CI, .006-.007), reaching a mean Rt of 1.16. Eight weeks later, the mean Rt was 1.16 and only 9/51 jurisdictions were maintaining an Rt < 1.0. Parallel models showed similar reversals in the growth of COVID-19 cases and deaths. Indicators often used to motivate relaxation at the time of relaxation (eg, test positivity rate <5%) predicted greater postrelaxation epidemic growth.
conclusionsWe detected an immediate and significant reversal in SARS-CoV-2 epidemic suppression after relaxation of social distancing measures across the United States. Premature relaxation of social distancing measures undermined the country's ability to control the disease burden associated with COVID-19.
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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.