ArticleNature communications2020
Overestimation of the effect of climatic warming on spring phenology due to misrepresentation of chilling.
Article in Nature communications, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 35 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
35 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Quantifying the trade-off between spring phenology and lethal frost risk: a meta-analysis.Nature communications · 2026Pooled it
- Heat requirement, not warming, governs the urban-rural disparity in spring phenology advancement.Innovation (Cambridge (Mass.)) · 2026Article
- Natural Vegetation Phenology in Central Asia: Satellite-Derived Trends and Nonlinear Dynamics via EEMD.Biology · 2026Article
- Hybrid machine learning approaches outperform mechanistic models of bloom timing in Eastern Redbud, Cercis canadensis.International journal of biometeorology · 2026Article
- Cold hardiness dynamics predict budbreak and associated low-temperature threats in grapevine.The New phytologist · 2026Article
- Provenance-Specific Chilling and Forcing Requirements Shape Spring Phenology in Three European Temperate Tree Species.Global change biology · 2026Article
- PEP725: 15 years of driving European and global phenology science.The New phytologist · 2026Review
- Effective chilling temperatures for dormancy release in extratropical forest trees increase from cold to warm regions.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2026Article
- Net Ecosystem COGlobal change biology · 2025Article
- Delayed leaf green-up is associated with fine particulate air pollution in China.Nature communications · 2025Article
- Effects of air temperature, photoperiod, and soil moisture on leaf senescence and dormancy depth in four subtropical tree species.Forestry research · 2025Article
- Assessing water requirements and suitability for apple growth at county scale in China: a phenological modeling approach during key growth stages.Frontiers in plant science · 2025Article
- Effectiveness of freezing temperatures on dormancy release of temperate woody species.Annals of botany · 2024Article
- Temperature sum models in plant spring phenology studies: two commonly used methods have different fields of application.Journal of experimental botany · 2024Article
- Deciphering the genetic mechanisms of chilling requirement for bud endodormancy release in deciduous fruit trees.Molecular breeding : new strategies in plant improvement · 2024Article
- Time to budbreak is not enough: cold hardiness evaluation is necessary in dormancy and spring phenology studies.Annals of botany · 2024Article
- Stable water isotopes reveal the onset of bud dormancy in temperate trees, whereas water content is a better proxy for dormancy release.Tree physiology · 2024Article
- Significant early end of the growing season of forest vegetation inside China's protected areas.iScience · 2024Article
- Non-symmetric responses of leaf onset date to natural warming and cooling in northern ecosystems.PNAS nexus · 2023Article
- Demographic consequences of phenological asynchrony for North American songbirds.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2023Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
7 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Spring warming substantially advances leaf unfolding and flowering time for perennials. Winter warming, however, decreases chilling accumulation (CA), which increases the heat requirement (HR) and acts to delay spring phenology. Whether or not this negative CA-HR relationship is correctly interpreted in ecosystem models remains unknown. Using leaf unfolding and flowering data for 30 perennials in Europe, here we show that more than half (7 of 12) of current chilling models are invalid since they show a positive CA-HR relationship. The possible reason is that they overlook the effect of freezing temperature on dormancy release. Overestimation of the advance in spring phenology by the end of this century by these invalid chilling models could be as large as 7.6 and 20.0 days under RCPs 4.5 and 8.5, respectively. Our results highlight the need for a better representation of chilling for the correct understanding of spring phenological responses to future climate change.
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