ArticleEpidemiology (Cambridge, Mass.)2021
Time Since Infection and Risks of Future Disease for Individuals with Mycobacterium tuberculosis Infection in the United States.
Article in Epidemiology (Cambridge, Mass.), 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 33 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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Who cites it
33 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Diabetes as a risk factor for tuberculosis disease.The Cochrane database of systematic reviews · 2024Pooled it
- Undernutrition as a risk factor for tuberculosis disease.The Cochrane database of systematic reviews · 2024Pooled it
- Optimizing Latent Tuberculosis Treatment Strategies Among Immigrants From High-Burden Settings.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2026Article
- Modeling the Impact of Case Finding for Tuberculosis: The Role of Infection Dynamics.The Journal of infectious diseases · 2026Article
- Programmatic impact and cost-effectiveness of scaling up the short-course 3HP regimen for tuberculosis preventive treatment in Brazil.BMJ global health · 2026Article
- Series 3: From Infection to Disease: A Global Scoping Review of Medical and Behavioural Determinants of Progression from TB Infection to TB Disease.Tropical medicine and infectious disease · 2026Review
- Identification of discriminative plasma protein biomarkers for recent Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection: a pilot data‑independent acquisition mass spectrometry‑based proteomics study.BMC infectious diseases · 2026Article
- A Rapid Active-Latent-Relapse Murine Model of Tuberculosis Based Blood Transcriptional Signature That Distinguishes Disease Stages.International journal of molecular sciences · 2026Article
- Comparative tuberculosis risk in healthcare and educational workers: occupational synergy.ERJ open research · 2026Article
- Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Tuberculosis Outcomes in the United States: A Bayesian Analysis.Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America · 2026Article
- Mycobacterium tuberculosis-specific blood immune signatures distinguish sarcoidosis from tuberculosis disease.Journal of immunology (Baltimore, Md. : 1950) · 2026Article
- Cross-border investigation of a tuberculosis outbreak in Vienna linked to a multi-country cluster among foreign-born individuals, Europe, 2021 to 2025.Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin · 2025Article
- Article
- Role of Tumor Necrosis Factor in Tuberculosis.Biomolecules · 2025Review
- Advancement in diagnostic approaches for latent tuberculosis: distinguishing recent from remote infections.One health outlook · 2025Review
- Effectiveness and Cost-Effectiveness of Expanded Targeted Testing and Treatment of Latent Tuberculosis Infection Among the Medicare Population in 2022.Annals of internal medicine · 2025Article
- Model-Based Analysis of Impact, Costs, and Cost-effectiveness of Tuberculosis Outbreak Investigations, United States.Emerging infectious diseases · 2025Article
- Long-Term Case-Finding of Latent Tuberculosis Infection Among Household Contacts to Support Tuberculosis Elimination Efforts in Indonesia.Materia socio-medica · 2025Article
- [The Case of a Tuberculosis Outbreak and Response at A Psychiatric Hospital in Daegu Metropolitan City].Jugan geon-gang gwa jilbyeong · 2024Article
- [Tuberculosis Risk and Efficacy of Latent Tuberculosis Infection Treatment among Participants of National Latent Tuberculosis Infection Screening Program].Jugan geon-gang gwa jilbyeong · 2024Article
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Authors and funding
8 authors.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundRisk of tuberculosis (TB) declines over time since Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection, but progression to clinical disease is still possible decades later. In the United States, most TB cases result from the progression of latent TB infection acquired over 2 years ago.
methodsWe synthesized evidence on TB natural history and incidence trends using a transmission-dynamic model. For the 2020 US population, we estimated average time since infection and annual, cumulative, and remaining lifetime risks of progression to TB, by nativity and age.
resultsFor a newly infected adult with no other risk factors for progression to TB, estimated rates of progression declined from 38 (95% uncertainty interval: 33, 46) to 0.38 (0.32, 0.45) per 1000 person-years between the first and 25th year since infection. Cumulative risk over 25 years from new infection was 7.9% (7.0, 8.9). In 2020, an estimated average age of individuals with prevalent infection was 62 (61, 63) for the US-born population, 55 (54, 55) for non-US-born, and 57 (56, 58) overall. Average risks of developing TB over the remaining lifetime were 1.2% (1.0, 1.4) for US-born, 2.2% (1.8, 2.6) for non-US-born, and 1.9% (1.6, 2.2) for the general population. Risk estimates were higher for younger age groups.
conclusionsOur analysis suggests that, although newly infected individuals face appreciable lifetime TB risks, most US individuals with latent TB infection were infected long ago, and face low future risks of developing TB. Better approaches are needed for identifying recently infected individuals and those with elevated progression risks.
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