ArticleBMC public health2020
El Niño Southern Oscillation as an early warning tool for dengue outbreak in India.
Article in BMC public health, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 19 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
19 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Battling dengue in a warming world: How climate and urbanization shape transmission in low- and middle-income countries (a rapid review).PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2026Pooled it
- Review
- Effect of sea surface temperature in El Niño regions on dengue dynamics in Colombia: Evidence from causal machine learning.PLOS global public health · 2026Article
- Dengue incidence and its relationship with El Niño oceanic index, as a sensitive variable to anticipate outbreaks in the Colombian Caribbean regionBiomedica : revista del Instituto Nacional de Salud · 2025Article
- The Indian Ocean Dipole drives imported-dominated dengue outbreaks in China: Mechanisms and predictions.PNAS nexus · 2025Article
- Impact of El Nino Southern Oscillation and Climate Change on Infectious Diseases with Ophthalmic Manifestations.Tropical medicine and infectious disease · 2025Review
- Rising dengue risk with increasing El Niño-Southern Oscillation amplitude and teleconnections.Nature communications · 2025Article
- The Correlation Between Three Teleconnections and Dengue Incidence in the Western Province of Sri Lanka, 2005-2019.GeoHealth · 2025Article
- Integrating anticipatory action in disease outbreak preparedness and response in the humanitarian sector.BMJ global health · 2025Review
- Effects of El Niño and the Positive Indian Ocean Dipole (+IOD) on Health, Food Security, Economics, and Conflict in Low- and Middle-Income Countries in the Indo-Pacific: A Systematic Review.Campbell systematic reviews · 2025Review
- Effects of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and seasonal weather conditions on Aedes aegypti infestation in the State of São Paulo (Brazil): A Bayesian spatio-temporal study.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2024Article
- From GeoSentinel data to epidemiological insights: a multidisciplinary effort towards artificial intelligence-supported detection of infectious disease outbreaks.Journal of travel medicine · 2024Article
- Spatial and temporal trends of dengue infections in Curaçao: A 21-year analysis.Parasite epidemiology and control · 2024Article
- Article
- Global climate change and human health: Pathways and possible solutions.Eco-Environment & Health · 2022Review
- Climate Anomalies and Spillover of Bat-Borne Viral Diseases in the Asia-Pacific Region and the Arabian Peninsula.Viruses · 2022Article
- Prediction of dengue fever outbreaks using climate variability and Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques in a stochastic susceptible-infected-removed model.Scientific reports · 2022Article
- The Complex Epidemiological Relationship between Flooding Events and Human Outbreaks of Mosquito-Borne Diseases: A Scoping Review.Environmental health perspectives · 2021Article
- A Review of Dengue's Historical and Future Health Risk from a Changing Climate.Current environmental health reports · 2021Review
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5 authors.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundDengue is rapidly expanding climate-sensitive mosquito-borne disease worldwide. Outbreaks of dengue occur in various parts of India as well but there is no tool to provide early warning. The current study was, therefore, undertaken to find out the link between El Niño, precipitation, and dengue cases, which could help in early preparedness for control of dengue.
methodsData on Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) was extracted from CPC-IRI (USA) while the data on monthly rainfall was procured from India Meteorological Department. Data on annual dengue cases was taken from the website of National Vector Borne Disease Control Programme (NVBDCP). Correlation analysis was used to analyse the relationship between seasonal positive ONI, rainfall index and dengue case index based on past 20 years' state-level data. The dengue case index representing 'relative deviation from mean' was correlated to the 3 months average ONI. The computed r values of dengue case index and positive ONI were further interpreted using generated spatial correlation map. The short-term prediction of dengue probability map has been prepared based on phase-wise (El Niño, La Niña, and Neutral) 20 years averaged ONI.
resultsA high correlation between positive ONI and dengue incidence was found, particularly in the states of Arunachal Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Haryana, Uttarakhand, Andaman and Nicobar Islands, Delhi, Daman and Diu. The states like Assam, Himachal Pradesh, Meghalaya, Manipur, Mizoram, Jammu & Kashmir, Uttar Pradesh, Orissa, and Andhra Pradesh shown negative correlation between summer El Niño and dengue incidence. Two - three month lag was found between monthly 'rainfall index' and dengue cases at local-scale analysis.
conclusionThe generated map signifies the spatial correlation between positive ONI and dengue case index, indicating positive correlation in the central part, while negative correlation in some coastal, northern, and north-eastern part of India. The findings offer a tool for early preparedness for undertaking intervention measures against dengue by the national programme at state level. For further improvement of results, study at micro-scale district level for finding month-wise association with Indian Ocean Dipole and local weather variables is desired for better explanation of dengue outbreaks in the states with 'no association'.
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