Evidence map›Paper›PMID 33007452›Full record

SynthesisInternational journal of infectious diseases : IJID : official publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases2020

A systematic review and meta-analysis of published research data on COVID-19 infection fatality rates.

Gideon Meyerowitz-Katz, Lea Merone

Registry-linked trialAbstract readMeta-AnalysisSystematic Review
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Synthesis in International journal of infectious diseases : IJID : official publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. It is linked to trial NCT04705766 (The KIDCOV Study), which is not on this map. Cited by 241 papers, 10 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
241citing papers in PubMed, 10 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

NCT04705766 recruitingnot on this mapstarted 2021, after this paper: background citation

The KIDCOV Study: ASSESSMENT of SARS-CoV-2 Without HOSPITALIZATION as a RISK FACTOR for ACUTE KIDNEY INJURY

Typeobservational_patient_registrySponsorUniversity of California, San FranciscoRan2021 to 2027Enrolled2,000ConditionsSARS-CoV Infection, Covid19, Corona Virus Infection, Acute Kidney InjuryArmsUrine Collection
3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

241 citing papers in PubMed, 10 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

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  11. Methylene blue for COVID-19 ARDS: insights from a randomized Clinical Trial.Naunyn-Schmiedeberg's archives of pharmacology · 2025
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181 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

2 authors.

Gideon Meyerowitz-KatzWestern Sydney Local Health District, Australia; University of Wollongong, Australia. Electronic address: gideon.meyerowitzkatz@health.nsw.gov.au.
Lea MeroneJames Cook University, Australia; Tropical Public Health Service, Cairns, Australia.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

An important unknown during the coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has been the infection fatality rate (IFR). This differs from the case fatality rate (CFR) as an estimate of the number of deaths and as a proportion of the total number of cases, including those who are mild and asymptomatic. While the CFR is extremely valuable for experts, IFR is increasingly being called for by policy makers and the lay public as an estimate of the overall mortality from COVID-19.

methodsPubmed, Medline, SSRN, and Medrxiv were searched using a set of terms and Boolean operators on 25/04/2020 and re-searched on 14/05/2020, 21/05/2020 and 16/06/2020. Articles were screened for inclusion by both authors. Meta-analysis was performed in Stata 15.1 by using the metan command, based on IFR and confidence intervals extracted from each study. Google/Google Scholar was used to assess the grey literature relating to government reports.

resultsAfter exclusions, there were 24 estimates of IFR included in the final meta-analysis, from a wide range of countries, published between February and June 2020. The meta-analysis demonstrated a point estimate of IFR of 0.68% (0.53%-0.82%) with high heterogeneity (p < 0.001).

conclusionBased on a systematic review and meta-analysis of published evidence on COVID-19 until July 2020, the IFR of the disease across populations is 0.68% (0.53%-0.82%). However, due to very high heterogeneity in the meta-analysis, it is difficult to know if this represents a completely unbiased point estimate. It is likely that, due to age and perhaps underlying comorbidities in the population, different places will experience different IFRs due to the disease. Given issues with mortality recording, it is also likely that this represents an underestimate of the true IFR figure. More research looking at age-stratified IFR is urgently needed to inform policymaking on this front.

Indexed as

AdolescentAdultAgedAged, 80 and overChildChild, PreschoolCOVID-19FemaleHumansLibraries, DigitalMaleMiddle AgedPandemicsPublicationsPubMedResearchCOVID-19Death rateGlobal healthInfection-fatality rateSARS-CoV-2

Identifiers

PMID33007452
PMCPMC7524446

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.