ArticleScientific reports2020
Fuzzy sets allow gaging the extent and rate of species range shift due to climate change.
Article in Scientific reports, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 4 papers.
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4 citing papers in PubMed.
- Southern Europe is becoming climatically favourable for African birds: anticipating the establishment of a new species.Frontiers in zoology · 2023Article
- Understanding the Geographic Patterns of Closely-Related Species ofPlants (Basel, Switzerland) · 2023Article
- Priority conservation area ofFrontiers in plant science · 2023Article
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Abstract
The recent modification of species distribution ranges in response to a warmer climate has constituted a major and generalized biogeographic change. The main driver of the shift in distribution is the disequilibrium of the species ranges with their climatic favourability. Most species distribution modelling approaches assume equilibrium of the distribution with the environment, which hinders their applicability to the analysis of this change. Using fuzzy set theory we assessed the response to climate change of a historically African species, the Atlas Long-legged Buzzard. With this approach we were able to quantify that the Buzzard's distribution is in a latitudinal disequilibrium of the species distribution with the current climate of 4 km, which is driving the species range northwards at a speed of around 1.3 km/year, i.e., it takes 3 years for the species to occupy new climatically favourable areas. This speed is expected to decelerate to 0.5 km/year in 2060-2080.
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