ArticlePLoS neglected tropical diseases2020
Spatial epidemiology of yellow fever: Identification of determinants of the 2016-2018 epidemics and at-risk areas in Brazil.
Article in PLoS neglected tropical diseases, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 25 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
25 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 50 citations in OpenAlex.
- A systematic review of the data, methods and environmental covariates used to map Aedes-borne arbovirus transmission risk.BMC infectious diseases · 2023Pooled it
- Yellow Fever Reemergence in Tolima, Colombia 2024-2025: An Eco-epidemiological Study.Open forum infectious diseases · 2026Article
- Drought dynamics explain once in a century yellow fever virus outbreak in Brazil with implications for climate change.Science advances · 2026Article
- Yellow fever in Latin America and the escalating risks in a changing eco-epidemiological landscape: a review.Lancet regional health. Americas · 2026Review
- How virus migration and meteorological elements shape the seasonality of influenza a/H3N2: A case study in China.One health (Amsterdam, Netherlands) · 2025Article
- The Human Footprint and Climate Change Shape Current and Future Scenarios of Visceral Leishmaniasis Distribution in Doce River Basin in Brazil.The American journal of tropical medicine and hygiene · 2025Article
- Epidemiology of Yellow Fever in Nigeria: Analysis of Climatic, Ecological, Socio-Demographic, and Clinical Factors Associated with Viral Positivity Among Suspected Cases Using National Surveillance Data, 2017-2023.Journal of epidemiology and global health · 2025Article
- Mechanistic yellow fever modelling under climate change in Brazil and beyond: Information gaps and future steps.Wellcome open research · 2025Article
- Yellow fever vaccination coverage and knowledge, attitudes and practices: a cross-sectional study during an epizootic event in São Sebastião, Federal District, 2020.Epidemiologia e servicos de saude : revista do Sistema Unico de Saude do Brasil · 2025Article
- Ecological Requirements for Abundance and Dispersion of Brazilian Yellow Fever Vectors in Tropical Areas.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2024Article
- Yellow fever in Ghana: Predicting emergence and ecology from historical outbreaks.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2024Article
- Exploring environmental and climate features associated with yellow fever across space and time in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest biome.PloS one · 2024Article
- Yellow fever in Ghana: Predicting emergence and ecology from historical outbreaks.PLOS global public health · 2024Article
- Identifying gaps on health impacts, exposures, and vulnerabilities to climate change on human health and wellbeing in South America: a scoping review.Lancet regional health. Americas · 2023Article
- Weekly Forecasting of Yellow Fever Occurrence and Incidence via Eco-Meteorological Dynamics.GeoHealth · 2023Article
- Genomic epidemiology unveils the dynamics and spatial corridor behind the Yellow Fever virus outbreak in Southern Brazil.Science advances · 2023Article
- Predicting Suitable Areas for African Swine Fever Outbreaks in Wild Boars in South Korea and Their Implications for Managing High-Risk Pig Farms.Animals : an open access journal from MDPI · 2023Article
- Ecological drivers of sustained enzootic yellow fever virus transmission in Brazil, 2017-2021.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2023Article
- Occurrence of yellow fever outbreaks in a partially vaccinated population: An analysis of the effective reproduction number.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2022Article
- Absence of yellow fever virus circulation in wildlife rodents from Brazil.Brazilian journal of microbiology : [publication of the Brazilian Society for Microbiology] · 2022Article
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Authors and funding
5 authors at 2 institutions in 2 countries.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Optimise control strategies of infectious diseases, identify factors that favour the circulation of pathogens, and propose risk maps are crucial challenges for global health. Ecological niche modelling, once relying on an adequate framework and environmental descriptors can be a helpful tool for such purposes. Despite the existence of a vaccine, yellow fever (YF) is still a public health issue. Brazil faced massive sylvatic YF outbreaks from the end of 2016 up to mid-2018, but cases in human and non-human primates have been recorded until the beginning of 2020. Here we used both human and monkey confirmed YF cases from two epidemic periods (2016/2017 and 2017/2018) to describe the spatial distribution of the cases and explore how biotic and abiotic factors drive their occurrence. The distribution of YF cases largely overlaps for humans and monkeys, and a contraction of the spatial extent associated with a southward displacement is observed during the second period of the epidemics. More contributive variables to the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of cases were related to biotic factors (mammal richness), abiotic factors (temperature and precipitation), and some human-related variables (population density, human footprint, and human vaccination coverage). Both projections of the most favourable conditions showed similar trends with a contraction of the more at-risk areas. Once extrapolated at a large scale, the Amazon basin remains at lower risk, although surrounding forest regions and notably the North-West region, would face a higher risk. Spatial projections of infectious diseases often relied on climatic variables only; here for both models, we instead highlighted the importance of considering local biotic conditions, hosts vulnerability, social and epidemiological factors to run the spatial risk analysis correctly: all YF cases occurring later on, in 2019 and 2020, were observed in the predicted at-risk areas.
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