Evidence map›Paper›PMID 33001839›Full record

Observational studyJMIR public health and surveillance2020

Transmission Dynamics of the COVID-19 Epidemic at the District Level in India: Prospective Observational Study.

Suman Saurabh, Mahendra Kumar Verma, Vaishali Gautam, Nitesh Kumar, Akhil Dhanesh Goel, Manoj Kumar Gupta, Pankaj Bhardwaj, Sanjeev Misra

Abstract readObservational Study
In one paragraph

Observational study in JMIR public health and surveillance, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 5 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
5citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

5 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Article
  3. Article
  4. Review
  5. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

8 authors.

Suman SaurabhDepartment of Community Medicine and Family Medicine, All India Institute of Medical Sciences, Jodhpur, India.ORCID 0000-0003-2281-6783
Mahendra Kumar VermaDepartment of Community Medicine and Family Medicine, All India Institute of Medical Sciences, Jodhpur, India.ORCID 0000-0002-9698-3069
Vaishali GautamDepartment of Community Medicine and Family Medicine, All India Institute of Medical Sciences, Jodhpur, India.ORCID 0000-0001-5682-1084
Nitesh KumarDepartment of Community Medicine and Family Medicine, All India Institute of Medical Sciences, Jodhpur, India.ORCID 0000-0002-1584-8907
Akhil Dhanesh GoelDepartment of Community Medicine and Family Medicine, All India Institute of Medical Sciences, Jodhpur, India.ORCID 0000-0002-6156-7903
Manoj Kumar GuptaDepartment of Community Medicine and Family Medicine, All India Institute of Medical Sciences, Jodhpur, India.ORCID 0000-0002-5367-5795
Pankaj BhardwajDepartment of Community Medicine and Family Medicine, All India Institute of Medical Sciences, Jodhpur, India.ORCID 0000-0001-9960-3060
Sanjeev MisraAll India Institute of Medical Sciences, Jodhpur, India.ORCID 0000-0002-0641-0946

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundOn March 9, 2020, the first COVID-19 case was reported in Jodhpur, Rajasthan, in the northwestern part of India. Understanding the epidemiology of COVID-19 at a local level is becoming increasingly important to guide measures to control the pandemic.

objectiveThe aim of this study was to estimate the serial interval and basic reproduction number (R

methodsContact tracing of individuals infected with SARS-CoV-2 was performed to obtain the serial intervals. The median and 95th percentile values of the SARS-CoV-2 serial interval were obtained from the best fits with the weibull, log-normal, log-logistic, gamma, and generalized gamma distributions. Aggregate and instantaneous R

resultsThe median and 95th percentile values of the serial interval were 5.23 days (95% CI 4.72-5.79) and 13.20 days (95% CI 10.90-18.18), respectively. R

conclusionsThe projected transmission reductions indicate that strengthening control measures could lead to proportionate reductions of the size of the COVID-19 epidemic. Time-dependent instantaneous R

Indexed as

EpidemicsCoronavirus InfectionsCOVID-19HumansIndiaPandemicsPneumonia, ViralProspective Studiesbasic reproduction numberCOVID-19EpidemiologyIndiainfectious diseasemathematical modelingoutbreak responseprojectionSARS-CoV-2serial interval

Identifiers

PMID33001839
PMCPMC7572116

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.