Evidence map›Paper›PMID 32995710›Full record

ArticleiScience2020

Forcing Seasonality of Influenza-like Epidemics with Daily Solar Resonance.

Fabrizio Nicastro, Giorgia Sironi, Elio Antonello, Andrea Bianco, Mara Biasin, John R Brucato, Ilaria Ermolli, Giovanni Pareschi, Marta Salvati, Paolo Tozzi and 2 more

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in iScience, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 5 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
5citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

5 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
  2. UV and violet light can Neutralize SARS-CoV-2 Infectivity.Journal of photochemistry and photobiology · 2022
    Article
  3. Article
  4. Article
  5. Predicting SARS-CoV-2 Weather-Induced Seasonal Virulence from Atmospheric Air Enthalpy.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2020
    Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

12 authors.

Fabrizio NicastroItalian National Institute for Astrophysics (INAF) - Rome Astronomical Observatory, Monte Porzio Catone, Rome, RM 00078, Italy.
Giorgia SironiItalian National Institute for Astrophysics (INAF) - Brera Astronomical Observatory, Milano/Merate, MI 20121, Italy.
Elio AntonelloItalian National Institute for Astrophysics (INAF) - Brera Astronomical Observatory, Milano/Merate, MI 20121, Italy.
Andrea BiancoItalian National Institute for Astrophysics (INAF) - Brera Astronomical Observatory, Milano/Merate, MI 20121, Italy.
Mara BiasinUniversity of Milano, Department of Biomedical and Clinical Sciences L. Sacco, Milano, MI 20157, Italy.
John R BrucatoItalian National Institute for Astrophysics (INAF) - Arcetri Astrophysical Observatory, Firenze, FI 50125, Italy.
Ilaria ErmolliItalian National Institute for Astrophysics (INAF) - Rome Astronomical Observatory, Monte Porzio Catone, Rome, RM 00078, Italy.
Giovanni PareschiItalian National Institute for Astrophysics (INAF) - Brera Astronomical Observatory, Milano/Merate, MI 20121, Italy.
Marta SalvatiRegional Agency for Environmental Protection of Lombardia (ARPA Lombardia), Milano, MI 20124, Italy.
Paolo TozziItalian National Institute for Astrophysics (INAF) - Arcetri Astrophysical Observatory, Firenze, FI 50125, Italy.
Daria TrabattoniUniversity of Milano, Department of Biomedical and Clinical Sciences L. Sacco, Milano, MI 20157, Italy.
Mario ClericiUniversity of Milano, Department of Pathophysiology and Transplantation, Milano, MI 20157, Italy.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Seasonality of acute viral respiratory diseases is a well-known and yet not fully understood phenomenon. Several models have been proposed to explain the regularity of yearly recurring outbreaks and the phase differences observed at different latitudes on the Earth. Such models consider known internal causes, primarily the periodic emergence of new virus variants that evade the host immune response. Yet, this alone is generally unable to explain the regularity of recurrences and the observed phase differences. Here we show that seasonality of viral respiratory diseases, as well as its distribution with latitude on the Earth, can be fully explained by the virucidal properties of UV-B and UV-A solar photons through a daily, minute-scale, resonant forcing mechanism. Such an induced periodicity can last, virtually unperturbed, from tens to hundreds of cycles, and even in the presence of internal dynamics (host's loss of immunity) much slower than seasonal will, on a long period, generate seasonal oscillations.

Indexed as

Complex SystemsInfection Control in Health TechnologySolar Terrestrial Physics

Identifiers

PMID32995710
PMCPMC7513765

What OpenQuestion holds

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LicenceCC BY-NC-ND
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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.