ArticleChaos, solitons, and fractals2020
Creating and applying SIR modified compartmental model for calculation of COVID-19 lockdown efficiency.
Article in Chaos, solitons, and fractals, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 14 papers.
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14 citing papers in PubMed, 53 citations in OpenAlex.
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- Epidemiological characteristics and transmission dynamics of the COVID-19 outbreak in Hohhot, China: a time-varying SQEIAHR model analysis.Frontiers in public health · 2023Article
- A mathematical prediction model of infectious diseases considering vaccine and temperature, and its prediction in Hong Kong.Heliyon · 2022Article
- The Impact of Testing Capacity and Compliance With Isolation on COVID-19: A Mathematical Modeling Study.AJPM focus · 2022Article
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- An efficient nonstandard computer method to solve a compartmental epidemiological model for COVID-19 with vaccination and population migration.Computer methods and programs in biomedicine · 2022Article
- Mathematical analysis of a COVID-19 model with double dose vaccination in Bangladesh.Results in physics · 2022Article
- Responses to COVID-19 with probabilistic programming.Frontiers in public health · 2022Article
- Understanding mutation hotspots for the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein using Shannon Entropy and K-means clustering.Computers in biology and medicine · 2021Article
- Using Systems Dynamics for Capturing the Multicausality of Factors Affecting Health System Capacity in Latin America while Responding to the COVID-19 Pandemic.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2021Article
- Modeling and controlling the spread of epidemic with various social and economic scenarios.Chaos, solitons, and fractals · 2021Article
- HIV/SARS-CoV-2 co-infection: T cell profile, cytokine dynamics and role of exhausted lymphocytes.International journal of infectious diseases : IJID : official publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases · 2021Article
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Authors and funding
1 author at 1 institution in 1 country.
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Abstract
We propose a Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) modified model for Coronavirus disease - 2019 (COVID-19) spread to estimate the efficacy of lockdown measures introduced during the pandemic. As input data, we used COVID-19 epidemiological information collected in fifteen European countries either in private surveys or using official statistics. Thirteen countries implemented lockdown measures, two countries (Sweden, Iceland) not. As output parameters, we studied herd immunity level and time of formation. Comparison of these parameters was used as an indicator of effectiveness / ineffectiveness of lockdown measures. In the absence of a medical vaccine, herd immunity may be regarded as a factor of population adaptation to severe acute respiratory syndrome-related coronavirus-2, the viral pathogen causing COVID-19 disease (SARS-CoV-2), and hence COVID-19 spreading stop. We demonstrated that there is no significant difference between lockdown and no-lockdown modes of COVID-19 containment, in terms of both herd immunity level and the time of achieving its maximum. The rationale for personal and business lockdowns may be found in the avoidance of healthcare system overburdening. However, lockdowns do not prevent any virus with droplet transmission (including SARS-CoV-2) from spreading. Therefore, in case of a future viral pathogen emergence, lockdown measures efficiency should not be overestimated, as it was done almost universally in the world during COVID-19 pandemic.
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