ArticleJournal of clinical medicine2020
Containment, Contact Tracing and Asymptomatic Transmission of Novel Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19): A Modelling Study.
Article in Journal of clinical medicine, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 21 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
21 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 40 citations in OpenAlex.
- Comparative effectiveness of contact tracing interventions in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic: a systematic review.European journal of epidemiology · 2023Pooled it
- Clinical manifestations of COVID-19 in the general population: systematic review.Wiener klinische Wochenschrift · 2021Pooled it
- Article
- Looking under the lamp-post: quantifying the performance of contact tracing in the United States during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic.BMC public health · 2024Article
- Study of optimal vaccination strategies for early COVID-19 pandemic using an age-structured mathematical model: A case study of the USA.Mathematical biosciences and engineering : MBE · 2023Article
- Food Sources May Affect the Symptom Rates of COVID-19, an Epidemiological Analysis Based on the Public Data in Gansu Province, China, During the Summer Epidemic Cycle in 2022.Disaster medicine and public health preparedness · 2023Article
- How time-scale differences in asymptomatic and symptomatic transmission shape SARS-CoV-2 outbreak dynamics.Epidemics · 2023Article
- Mathematical modeling to study the impact of immigration on the dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic: A case study for Venezuela.Spatial and spatio-temporal epidemiology · 2022Article
- PCovNet: A presymptomatic COVID-19 detection framework using deep learning model using wearables data.Computers in biology and medicine · 2022Article
- Nonlinear growth and mathematical modelling of COVID-19 in some African countries with the Atangana-Baleanu fractional derivative.Communications in nonlinear science & numerical simulation · 2022Article
- Assessing Public Health and Social Measures Against COVID-19 in Japan From March to June 2021.Frontiers in medicine · 2022Article
- SARS-CoV-2 infections among asymptomatic individuals contributed to COVID-19 cases: A cross-sectional study among prospective air travelers from Ghana.Frontiers in public health · 2022Article
- Application of artificial intelligence in COVID-19 medical area: a systematic review.Journal of thoracic disease · 2021Review
- Analysis of Delayed Vaccination Regimens: A Mathematical Modeling Approach.Epidemiologia (Basel, Switzerland) · 2021Article
- Nonlinear Dynamics of the Introduction of a New SARS-CoV-2 Variant with Different Infectiousness.Mathematics (Basel, Switzerland) · 2021Article
- Analysis of Key Factors of a SARS-CoV-2 Vaccination Program: A Mathematical Modeling Approach.Epidemiologia (Basel, Switzerland) · 2021Article
- Precision Mapping of COVID-19 Vulnerable Locales by Epidemiological and Socioeconomic Risk Factors, Developed Using South Korean Data.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2021Article
- COVID-19 Risk Assessment for the Tokyo Olympic Games.Frontiers in public health · 2021Article
- Modelling SARS-CoV-2 unreported cases in Italy: Analysis of serological survey and vaccination scenarios.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2021Article
- Preoperative SARS-CoV-2 screening: Can it really rule out COVID-19?Canadian journal of anaesthesia = Journal canadien d'anesthesie · 2020Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
11 authors at 2 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
Abstract
When a novel infectious disease emerges, enhanced contact tracing and isolation are implemented to prevent a major epidemic, and indeed, they have been successful for the control of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS), which have been greatly reduced without causing a global pandemic. Considering that asymptomatic and pre-symptomatic infections are substantial for the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19), the feasibility of preventing the major epidemic has been questioned. Using a two-type branching process model, the present study assesses the feasibility of containing COVID-19 by computing the probability of a major epidemic. We show that if there is a substantial number of asymptomatic transmissions, cutting chains of transmission by means of contact tracing and case isolation would be very challenging without additional interventions, and in particular, untraced cases contribute to lowering the feasibility of containment. Even if isolation of symptomatic cases is conducted swiftly after symptom onset, only secondary transmissions after the symptom onset can be prevented.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.