ArticleJournal of theoretical biology2021
Predicting the number of reported and unreported cases for the COVID-19 epidemics in China, South Korea, Italy, France, Germany and United Kingdom.
Article in Journal of theoretical biology, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 58 papers.
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Who cites it
58 citing papers in PubMed.
- The work of Pierre Magal on differential equations, functional analysis and mathematical biology.Journal of mathematical biology · 2025Article
- Mathematical models to characterize the early phase of the COVID-19 pandemic in New Mexico, USA.Mathematical biosciences and engineering : MBE · 2025Article
- A six-compartment model for COVID-19 with transmission dynamics and public health strategies.Scientific reports · 2024Article
- Forecasting the Endemic/Epidemic Transition in COVID-19 in Some Countries: Influence of the Vaccination.Diseases (Basel, Switzerland) · 2023Article
- Mitigating the outbreak of an infectious disease over its life cycle: A diffusion-based approach.PloS one · 2023Article
- Sources, diffusion and prediction in COVID-19 pandemic: lessons learned to face next health emergency.AIMS public health · 2023Review
- Data-driven multiscale dynamical framework to control a pandemic evolution with non-pharmaceutical interventions.PloS one · 2023Article
- Article
- Population flow based spatial-temporal eigenvector filtering modeling for exploring effects of health risk factors on COVID-19.Sustainable cities and society · 2022Article
- A novel COBuilding and environment · 2022Article
- Spatialized epidemiological forecasting applied to Covid-19 pandemic at departmental scale in France.Systems & control letters · 2022Article
- Geographic spread of COVID-19 and local economies: Heterogeneous effects by establishment size and industry.Journal of regional science · 2022Article
- An Effective Strategy and Mathematical Model to Predict the Sustainable Evolution of the Impact of the Pandemic Lockdown.Healthcare (Basel, Switzerland) · 2022Article
- Inverse problem for adaptive SIR model: Application to COVID-19 in Latin America.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2022Article
- Forecasting COVID-19 situation in Bangladesh.Biosafety and health · 2022Article
- Article
- Underdetection in a stochastic SIR model for the analysis of the COVID-19 Italian epidemic.Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment : research journal · 2022Article
- A Spreadsheet-Based Short Time Forecasting Method for the COVID-19 Pandemic.Transactions of the Indian National Academy of Engineering : an international journal of engineering and technology · 2022Article
- Dynamical analysis of the infection status in diverse communities due to COVID-19 using a modified SIR model.Nonlinear dynamics · 2022Article
- An algorithm for the direct estimation of the parameters of the SIR epidemic model from theEuropean physical journal plus · 2022Article
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Authors and funding
3 authors.
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Abstract
We model the COVID-19 coronavirus epidemics in China, South Korea, Italy, France, Germany and the United Kingdom. We identify the early phase of the epidemics, when the number of cases grows exponentially, before government implementation of major control measures. We identify the next phase of the epidemics, when these social measures result in a time-dependent exponentially decreasing number of cases. We use reported case data, both asymptomatic and symptomatic, to model the transmission dynamics. We also incorporate into the transmission dynamics unreported cases. We construct our models with comprehensive consideration of the identification of model parameters. A key feature of our model is the evaluation of the timing and magnitude of implementation of major public policies restricting social movement. We project forward in time the development of the epidemics in these countries based on our model analysis.
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