ArticleScientific reports2020
Solvable delay model for epidemic spreading: the case of Covid-19 in Italy.
Article in Scientific reports, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 16 papers.
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Who cites it
16 citing papers in PubMed.
- Human mobility and sewage data correlate with COVID-19 epidemic evolution in a 3-year surveillance of the metropolitan area of Bologna.BMC infectious diseases · 2025Article
- A data-driven analysis on the mediation effect of compartment models between control measures and COVID-19 epidemics.Heliyon · 2024Article
- A discrete model for the evaluation of public policies: The case of Colombia during the COVID-19 pandemic.PloS one · 2023Article
- Modeling the multifractal dynamics of COVID-19 pandemic.Chaos, solitons, and fractals · 2022Article
- Non-Markovian SIR epidemic spreading model of COVID-19.Chaos, solitons, and fractals · 2022Article
- Influence of state reopening policies in COVID-19 mortality.Scientific reports · 2022Article
- A novel hybrid SEIQR model incorporating the effect of quarantine and lockdown regulations for COVID-19.Scientific reports · 2021Article
- Estimation of COVID-19 recovery and decease periods in Canada using delay model.Scientific reports · 2021Article
- Emergence of universality in the transmission dynamics of COVID-19.Scientific reports · 2021Article
- Distribution of incubation periods of COVID-19 in the Canadian context.Scientific reports · 2021Article
- Prediction of Covid-19 spreading and optimal coordination of counter-measures: From microscopic to macroscopic models to Pareto fronts.PloS one · 2021Article
- Forecasts of Covid-19 evolution by nearest epidemic trajectories detection.Procedia computer science · 2021Article
- New approximations, and policy implications, from a delayed dynamic model of a fast pandemic.Physica D. Nonlinear phenomena · 2020Article
- Logistic equation and COVID-19.Chaos, solitons, and fractals · 2020Article
- Effect of mitigation measures on the spreading of COVID-19 in hard-hit states in the U.S.PloS one · 2020Article
- A novel deterministic forecast model for COVID-19 epidemic based on a single ordinary integro-differential equation.European physical journal plus · 2020Article
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1 author.
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Abstract
We study a simple realistic model for describing the diffusion of an infectious disease on a population of individuals. The dynamics is governed by a single functional delay differential equation, which, in the case of a large population, can be solved exactly, even in the presence of a time-dependent infection rate. This delay model has a higher degree of accuracy than that of the so-called SIR model, commonly used in epidemiology, which, instead, is formulated in terms of ordinary differential equations. We apply this model to describe the outbreak of the new infectious disease, Covid-19, in Italy, taking into account the containment measures implemented by the government in order to mitigate the spreading of the virus and the social costs for the population.
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