ArticleBiomechanics and modeling in mechanobiology2021
Contribution to COVID-19 spread modelling: a physical phenomenological dissipative formalism.
Article in Biomechanics and modeling in mechanobiology, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
In this study, we propose an evolution law of COVID-19 transmission. An infinite ordered lattice represents population. Epidemic evolution is represented by a wave-like free spread starting from a first case as an epicentre. Free energy of the virus on a given day is defined equal to the natural logarithm of active infected cases number. We postulate a form of free energy built using thermodynamics of irreversible processes in analogy to isotherm wave propagation in solids and non-local elastic damage behaviour of materials. The proposed expression of daily free energy rate leads to dissipation of propagation introducing a parameter quantifying measures taking by governments to restrict transmission. Entropy daily rate representing disorder produced in the initial system is also explicitly defined. In this context, a simple law of evolution of infected cases as function of time is given in an iterative form. The model predicts different effects on peak of infected cases I
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