ArticleProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America2020
Inferring transmission trees to guide targeting of interventions against visceral leishmaniasis and post-kala-azar dermal leishmaniasis.
Article in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 20 papers.
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20 citing papers in PubMed, 31 citations in OpenAlex.
- Elimination of visceral leishmaniasis as a public health problem in Bangladesh: Lessons learned and questions remaining.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2026Review
- Non-centering for discrete-valued state transition models: an application to ESBL-producingStatistics and computing · 2026Article
- Spatial variation in time to diagnosis of visceral leishmaniasis in Bihar, India.BMC global and public health · 2025Article
- Inferring the regional distribution of Visceral Leishmaniasis incidence from data at different spatial scales.Communications medicine · 2024Article
- Evaluation of CD1a immunostaining in the diagnosis of cutaneous leishmaniasis caused byParasitology · 2024Article
- The Hidden Hand of Asymptomatic Infection Hinders Control of Neglected Tropical Diseases: A Modeling Analysis.Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America · 2024Article
- Social determinants of visceral leishmaniasis elimination in Eastern Africa.BMJ global health · 2023Review
- Revisiting the diagnosis and treatment of Para Kala-azar Dermal Leishmaniasis in the endemic foci of Bangladesh.PloS one · 2023Article
- Gauging the skin resident Leishmania parasites through a loop mediated isothermal amplification (LAMP) assay in post-kala-azar dermal leishmaniasis.Scientific reports · 2022Article
- Impact of intensified control on visceral leishmaniasis in a highly-endemic district of Bihar, India: an interrupted time series analysis.Epidemics · 2022Article
- Repurposing Lansoprazole and Posaconazole to treat leishmaniasis: Integration of in vitro testing, pharmacological corroboration, and mechanisms of action.Journal of food and drug analysis · 2022Article
- Challenges of using modelling evidence in the visceral leishmaniasis elimination programme in India.PLOS global public health · 2022Article
- Overcoming roadblocks in the development of vaccines for leishmaniasis.Expert review of vaccines · 2021Review
- Emergent canine visceral leishmaniasis in Argentina: Comparative diagnostics and relevance to proliferation of human disease.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2021Article
- Mathematical modelling of the use of insecticide-treated nets for elimination of visceral leishmaniasis in Bihar, India.Royal Society open science · 2021Article
- Strengthening data collection for neglected tropical diseases: What data are needed for models to better inform tailored intervention programmes?PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2021Article
- Visceral leishmaniasis outbreaks in Bihar: community-level investigations in the context of elimination of kala-azar as a public health problem.Parasites & vectors · 2021Article
- How modelling can help steer the course set by the World Health Organization 2021-2030 roadmap on neglected tropical diseases.Gates open research · 2021Article
- Mechanisms of Immunopathogenesis in Cutaneous Leishmaniasis And Post Kala-azar Dermal Leishmaniasis (PKDL).Frontiers in cellular and infection microbiology · 2021Review
- Optimizing Village-Level Targeting of Active Case Detection to Support Visceral Leishmaniasis Elimination in India.Frontiers in cellular and infection microbiology · 2021Article
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Authors and funding
10 authors at 8 institutions in 4 countries.
Funding
Abstract
Understanding of spatiotemporal transmission of infectious diseases has improved significantly in recent years. Advances in Bayesian inference methods for individual-level geo-located epidemiological data have enabled reconstruction of transmission trees and quantification of disease spread in space and time, while accounting for uncertainty in missing data. However, these methods have rarely been applied to endemic diseases or ones in which asymptomatic infection plays a role, for which additional estimation methods are required. Here, we develop such methods to analyze longitudinal incidence data on visceral leishmaniasis (VL) and its sequela, post-kala-azar dermal leishmaniasis (PKDL), in a highly endemic community in Bangladesh. Incorporating recent data on VL and PKDL infectiousness, we show that while VL cases drive transmission when incidence is high, the contribution of PKDL increases significantly as VL incidence declines (reaching 55% in this setting). Transmission is highly focal: 85% of mean distances from inferred infectors to their secondary VL cases were <300 m, and estimated average times from infector onset to secondary case infection were <4 mo for 88% of VL infectors, but up to 2.9 y for PKDL infectors. Estimated numbers of secondary cases per VL and PKDL case varied from 0 to 6 and were strongly correlated with the infector's duration of symptoms. Counterfactual simulations suggest that prevention of PKDL could have reduced overall VL incidence by up to 25%. These results highlight the need for prompt detection and treatment of PKDL to achieve VL elimination in the Indian subcontinent and provide quantitative estimates to guide spatiotemporally targeted interventions against VL.
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