ArticlePloS one2020
Global convergence of COVID-19 basic reproduction number and estimation from early-time SIR dynamics.
Article in PloS one, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 44 papers.
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Who cites it
44 citing papers in PubMed.
- The disutility of compartmental model forecasts during the COVID-19 pandemic.Frontiers in epidemiology · 2024Article
- Dying together: A convergence analysis of fatalities during COVID-19.Journal of economic asymmetries · 2023Article
- Article
- Delta variant (B.1.617.2) of SARS-CoV-2: current understanding of infection, transmission, immune escape, and mutational landscape.Folia microbiologica · 2023Review
- Effect of sojourn time distributions on the early dynamics of COVID-19 outbreak.Nonlinear dynamics · 2023Article
- Has the COVID-19 pandemic converged across countries?Empirical economics · 2023Article
- Infectious Disease Modeling with Socio-Viral Behavioral Aspects-Lessons Learned from the Spread of SARS-CoV-2 in a University.Tropical medicine and infectious disease · 2022Article
- Catastrophic hydraulic failure and tipping points in plants.Plant, cell & environment · 2022Review
- A Paradigm Shift in the Combination Changes of SARS-CoV-2 Variants and Increased Spread of Delta Variant (B.1.617.2) across the World.Aging and disease · 2022Article
- Inferring the effective reproductive number from deterministic and semi-deterministic compartmental models using incidence and mobility data.PLoS computational biology · 2022Article
- Modelling epidemic spread in cities using public transportation as a proxy for generalized mobility trends.Scientific reports · 2022Article
- Optimal COVID-19 lockdown strategies in an age-structured SEIR model of Northern Ireland.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2022Article
- Resilience of countries to COVID-19 correlated with trust.Scientific reports · 2022Article
- Factors influencing the acquisition of COVID infection among high-risk contacts of COVID-19 patients in Madurai district-A case control study.Journal of family medicine and primary care · 2022Article
- Estimation of the basic reproduction number of COVID-19 from the incubation period distribution.The European physical journal. Special topics · 2022Article
- Underdetection in a stochastic SIR model for the analysis of the COVID-19 Italian epidemic.Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment : research journal · 2022Article
- Imagining pandemics now, and then: a century of medical failure.Interface focus · 2021Article
- Early warning signal reliability varies with COVID-19 waves.Biology letters · 2021Article
- Impact of the Innate Inflammatory Response on ICU Admission and Death in Hospitalized Patients with COVID-19.Biomedicines · 2021Article
- One year of modeling and forecasting COVID-19 transmission to support policymakers in Connecticut.Scientific reports · 2021Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
5 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
The SIR ('susceptible-infectious-recovered') formulation is used to uncover the generic spread mechanisms observed by COVID-19 dynamics globally, especially in the early phases of infectious spread. During this early period, potential controls were not effectively put in place or enforced in many countries. Hence, the early phases of COVID-19 spread in countries where controls were weak offer a unique perspective on the ensemble-behavior of COVID-19 basic reproduction number Ro inferred from SIR formulation. The work here shows that there is global convergence (i.e., across many nations) to an uncontrolled Ro = 4.5 that describes the early time spread of COVID-19. This value is in agreement with independent estimates from other sources reviewed here and adds to the growing consensus that the early estimate of Ro = 2.2 adopted by the World Health Organization is low. A reconciliation between power-law and exponential growth predictions is also featured within the confines of the SIR formulation. The effects of testing ramp-up and the role of 'super-spreaders' on the inference of Ro are analyzed using idealized scenarios. Implications for evaluating potential control strategies from this uncontrolled Ro are briefly discussed in the context of the maximum possible infected fraction of the population (needed to assess health care capacity) and mortality (especially in the USA given diverging projections). Model results indicate that if intervention measures still result in Ro > 2.7 within 44 days after first infection, intervention is unlikely to be effective in general for COVID-19.
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