ArticlePloS one2020
Preliminary estimation of temporal and spatiotemporal dynamic measures of COVID-19 transmission in Thailand.
Article in PloS one, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 13 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
13 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Spatio-Temporal COVID-19 Modeling: A Global Systematic Review of Data Integration, Equity, and Lessons for Pandemic Preparedness.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2026Pooled it
- Spatiotemporal patterns and association with climate for malaria elimination in Lao PDR: a hierarchical modelling analysis with two-step Bayesian model selection.Malaria journal · 2024Article
- Evaluation and comparison of spatial cluster detection methods for improved decision making of disease surveillance: a case study of national dengue surveillance in Thailand.BMC medical research methodology · 2024Article
- Two-step spatiotemporal anomaly detection corrected for lag reporting time with application to real-time dengue surveillance in Thailand.BMC medical research methodology · 2024Article
- Evaluation of Bayesian spatiotemporal infectious disease models for prospective surveillance analysis.BMC medical research methodology · 2023Article
- Projecting malaria elimination in Thailand using Bayesian hierarchical spatiotemporal models.Scientific reports · 2023Article
- Spatiotemporal reproduction number with Bayesian model selection for evaluation of emerging infectious disease transmissibility: an application to COVID-19 national surveillance data.BMC medical research methodology · 2023Article
- Modeling Dynamic Responses to COVID-19 Epidemics: A Case Study in Thailand.Tropical medicine and infectious disease · 2022Article
- Real-time estimation of the epidemic reproduction number: Scoping review of the applications and challenges.PLOS digital health · 2022Article
- Article
- Nine Months of COVID-19 Pandemic in Europe: A Comparative Time Series Analysis of Cases and Fatalities in 35 Countries.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2021Article
- A foci cohort analysis to monitor successful and persistent foci under Thailand's Malaria Elimination Strategy.Malaria journal · 2021Article
- Article
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4 authors.
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Abstract
backgroundAs a new emerging infectious disease pandemic, there is an urgent need to understand the dynamics of COVID-19 in each country to inform planning of emergency measures to contain its spread. It is essential that appropriate disease control activities are planned and implemented in a timely manner. Thailand was one of the first countries outside China to be affected with subsequent importation and domestic spread in most provinces in the country.
methodA key ingredient to guide planning and implementation of public health measures is a metric of transmissibility which represents the infectiousness of a disease. Ongoing policies can utilize this information to plan appropriately with updated estimates of disease transmissibility. Therefore we present descriptive analyses and preliminary statistical estimation of reproduction numbers over time and space to facilitate disease control activities in Thailand.
resultsThe estimated basic reproduction number for COVID-19 during the study ranged from 2.23-5.90, with a mean of 3.75. We also tracked disease dynamics over time using temporal and spatiotemporal reproduction numbers. The results suggest that the outbreak was under control since the middle of April. After the boxing stadium and entertainment venues, the numbers of new cases had increased and spread across the country. DISCUSSION: Although various scenarios about assumptions were explored in this study, the real situation was difficult to determine given the limited data. More thorough mathematical modelling would be helpful to improve the estimation of transmissibility metrics for emergency preparedness as more epidemiological and clinical information about this new infection becomes available. However, the results can be used to guide interventions directly and to help parameterize models to predict the impact of these interventions.
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