Evidence map›Paper›PMID 32967711›Full record

ReviewParasites & vectors2020

Integrating statistical and mechanistic approaches with biotic and environmental variables improves model predictions of the impact of climate and land-use changes on future mosquito-vector abundance, diversity and distributions in Australia.

Eugene T Madzokere, Willow Hallgren, Oz Sahin, Julie A Webster, Cameron E Webb, Brendan Mackey, Lara J Herrero

Open access · goldAbstract readReview
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Review in Parasites & vectors, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 14 papers, 3 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
14citing papers in PubMed, 3 pooled it
2.7field-weighted citation impact, top 10% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

14 citing papers in PubMed, 3 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 26 citations in OpenAlex.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

7 authors at 3 institutions in 1 country.

Eugene T MadzokereInstitute for Glycomics, Griffith University, Gold Coast Campus, Southport, QLD, 4215, Australia.
Willow HallgrenEnvironmental Futures Research Institute, Griffith School of Environment, Gold Coast campus, Griffith University, Gold Coast, QLD, 4222, Australia.
Oz SahinCities Research Institute, Gold Coast campus, Griffith University, Gold Coast, QLD, 4222, Australia.
Julie A WebsterQIMR Berghofer Medical Research Institute, 300 Herston Road, Herston, QLD, 4006, Australia.
Cameron E WebbDepartment of Medical Entomology, NSW Health Pathology, ICPMR, Westmead Hospital, Westmead, NSW, 2145, Australia.
Brendan MackeyGriffith Climate Change Response Program, Griffith School of Environment, Gold Coast campus, Griffith University, Gold Coast, QLD, 4222, Australia.
Lara J HerreroInstitute for Glycomics, Griffith University, Gold Coast Campus, Southport, QLD, 4215, Australia. l.herrero@griffith.edu.au.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-5661-9828
Griffith University · AUQIMR Berghofer Medical Research Institute · AUTaronga Conservation Society Australia · AU

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Changes to Australia's climate and land-use patterns could result in expanded spatial and temporal distributions of endemic mosquito vectors including Aedes and Culex species that transmit medically important arboviruses. Climate and land-use changes greatly influence the suitability of habitats for mosquitoes and their behaviors such as mating, feeding and oviposition. Changes in these behaviors in turn determine future species-specific mosquito diversity, distribution and abundance. In this review, we discuss climate and land-use change factors that influence shifts in mosquito distribution ranges. We also discuss the predictive and epidemiological merits of incorporating these factors into a novel integrated statistical (SSDM) and mechanistic species distribution modelling (MSDM) framework. One potentially significant merit of integrated modelling is an improvement in the future surveillance and control of medically relevant endemic mosquito vectors such as Aedes vigilax and Culex annulirostris, implicated in the transmission of many arboviruses such as Ross River virus and Barmah Forest virus, and exotic mosquito vectors such as Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus. We conducted a focused literature search to explore the merits of integrating SSDMs and MSDMs with biotic and environmental variables to better predict the future range of endemic mosquito vectors. We show that an integrated framework utilising both SSDMs and MSDMs can improve future mosquito-vector species distribution projections in Australia. We recommend consideration of climate and environmental change projections in the process of developing land-use plans as this directly impacts mosquito-vector distribution and larvae abundance. We also urge laboratory, field-based researchers and modellers to combine these modelling approaches. Having many different variations of integrated (SDM) modelling frameworks could help to enhance the management of endemic mosquitoes in Australia. Enhanced mosquito management measures could in turn lead to lower arbovirus spread and disease notification rates.

Indexed as

BiodiversityAnimal DistributionAnimalsAustraliaClimate ChangeCulicidaeMosquito ControlMosquito VectorsClimate and land-use changeDistributionIntegrated modellingMosquito

Identifiers

PMID32967711
PMCPMC7510059
OpenAlexW3087846902

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.