Evidence map›Paper›PMID 32963074›Full record

ArticleBMJ open2020

Sociodemographic and lifestyle predictors of incident hospital admissions with multimorbidity in a general population, 1999-2019: the EPIC-Norfolk cohort.

Robert Luben, Shabina Hayat, Nicholas Wareham, Paul P Pharoah, Kay-Tee Khaw

Open access · goldAbstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in BMJ open, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 9 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
9citing papers in PubMed, 2 pooled it
1.2field-weighted citation impact, top 20% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

9 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 13 citations in OpenAlex.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

5 authors at 1 institution in 1 country.

Robert LubenDepartment of Public Health and Primary Care, University of Cambridge School of Clinical Medicine, Cambridge, UK robert.luben@phpc.cam.ac.uk.ORCID 0000-0002-5088-6343
Shabina HayatDepartment of Public Health and Primary Care, University of Cambridge School of Clinical Medicine, Cambridge, UK.
Nicholas WarehamMRC Epidemiology Unit, University of Cambridge School of Clinical Medicine, Cambridge, UK.
Paul P PharoahDepartment of Public Health and Primary Care, University of Cambridge School of Clinical Medicine, Cambridge, UK.
Kay-Tee KhawMRC Epidemiology Unit, University of Cambridge School of Clinical Medicine, Cambridge, UK.
University of Cambridge · GB

Funding

Cancer Research UK 14136Cancer Research UK C864/A2883Cancer Research UK C864/A8257Medical Research Council G0401527Medical Research Council G0500300Medical Research Council G1000143Medical Research Council G9502233Medical Research Council MC_UU_00006/1Medical Research Council MC_UU_12015/1Medical Research Council MR/N003284/1
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundThe ageing population and prevalence of long-term disorders with multimorbidity are a major health challenge worldwide. The associations between comorbid conditions and mortality risk are well established; however, few prospective community-based studies have reported on prior risk factors for incident hospital admissions with multimorbidity. We aimed to explore the independent associations for a range of demographic, lifestyle and physiological determinants and the likelihood of subsequent hospital incident multimorbidity.

methodsWe examined incident hospital admissions with multimorbidity in 25 014 men and women aged 40-79 in a British prospective population-based study recruited in 1993-1997 and followed up until 2019. The determinants of incident multimorbidity, defined as Charlson Comorbidity Index ≥3, were investigated using multivariable logistic regression models for the 10-year period 1999-2009 and repeated with independent measurements in a second 10-year period 2009-2019.

resultsBetween 1999 and 2009, 18 179 participants (73% of the population) had a hospital admission. Baseline 5-year and 10-year incident multimorbidities were observed in 6% and 12% of participants, respectively. Age per 10-year increase (OR 2.19, 95% CI 2.06 to 2.33) and male sex (OR 1.32, 95% CI 1.19 to 1.47) predicted incident multimorbidity over 10 years. In the subset free of the most serious diseases at baseline, current smoking (OR 1.86, 95% CI 1.60 to 2.15), body mass index >30 kg/m² (OR 1.48, 95% CI 1.30 to 1.70) and physical inactivity (OR 1.16, 95% CI 1.04 to 1.29) were positively associated and plasma vitamin C (a biomarker of plant food intake) per SD increase (OR 0.86, 95% CI 0.81 to 0.91) inversely associated with incident 10-year multimorbidity after multivariable adjustment for age, sex, social class, education, alcohol consumption, systolic blood pressure and cholesterol. Results were similar when re-examined for a further time period in 2009-2019.

conclusionAge, male sex and potentially modifiable lifestyle behaviours including smoking, body mass index, physical inactivity and low fruit and vegetable intake were associated with increased risk of future incident hospital admissions with multimorbidity.

Indexed as

Life StyleMultimorbidityAdultAgedChildCohort StudiesFemaleHospitalsHumansMaleMiddle AgedProspective StudiesRisk Factorsepidemiologyhealth policysocial medicine

Identifiers

PMID32963074
PMCPMC7509968
OpenAlexW3081195689

What OpenQuestion holds

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LicenceCC BY
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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.