Evidence map›Paper›PMID 32954307›Full record

ArticleBrain communications2020

Prediction of conversion to Alzheimer's disease using deep survival analysis of MRI images.

Tomonori Nakagawa, Manabu Ishida, Junpei Naito, Atsushi Nagai, Shuhei Yamaguchi, Keiichi Onoda, Alzheimer’s Disease Neuroimaging Initiative

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Brain communications, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 28 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
28citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

28 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Deep survival modeling to predict future cognitive impairment in unimpaired adults.The journals of gerontology. Series A, Biological sciences and medical sciences · 2026
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

7 authors.

Tomonori NakagawaDepartment of Neurology, Masuda Red Cross Hospital, Masuda 698-8501, Japan.
Manabu IshidaDepartment of Neurology, Shimane University, Izumo 693-8501, Japan.
Junpei NaitoERISA Corporation, Matsue 690-0816, Japan.
Atsushi NagaiDepartment of Neurology, Shimane University, Izumo 693-8501, Japan.
Shuhei YamaguchiDepartment of Neurology, Shimane University, Izumo 693-8501, Japan.
Keiichi OnodaDepartment of Neurology, Shimane University, Izumo 693-8501, Japan.
Alzheimer’s Disease Neuroimaging Initiative

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

The prediction of the conversion of healthy individuals and those with mild cognitive impairment to the status of active Alzheimer's disease is a challenging task. Recently, a survival analysis based upon deep learning was developed to enable predictions regarding the timing of an event in a dataset containing censored data. Here, we investigated whether a deep survival analysis could similarly predict the conversion to Alzheimer's disease. We selected individuals with mild cognitive impairment and cognitively normal subjects and used the grey matter volumes of brain regions in these subjects as predictive features. We then compared the prediction performances of the traditional standard Cox proportional-hazard model, the DeepHit model and our deep survival model based on a Weibull distribution. Our model achieved a maximum concordance index of 0.835, which was higher than that yielded by the Cox model and comparable to that of the DeepHit model. To our best knowledge, this is the first report to describe the application of a deep survival model to brain magnetic resonance imaging data. Our results demonstrate that this type of analysis could successfully predict the time of an individual's conversion to Alzheimer's disease.

Indexed as

Alzheimer’s diseasedeep survival analysismild cognitive impairmentprediction of conversion

Identifiers

PMID32954307
PMCPMC7425528

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.