ArticleInfectious Disease Modelling2020
Piecewise quadratic growth during the 2019 novel coronavirus epidemic.
Article in Infectious Disease Modelling, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 12 papers.
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12 citing papers in PubMed.
- Role of children in the Bulgarian COVID-19 epidemic: A mathematical model study.World journal of experimental medicine · 2023Article
- Towards predicting COVID-19 infection waves: A random-walk Monte Carlo simulation approach.Chaos, solitons, and fractals · 2022Article
- Spatiotemporal Bayesian estimation of the number of under-reported COVID-19 cases in Victoria Australia.PeerJ · 2022Article
- A new logistic growth model applied to COVID-19 fatality data.Epidemics · 2021Article
- Article
- On the necessity of proper quarantine without lock down for 2019-nCoV in the absence of vaccine.Results in physics · 2021Article
- A simple model for the total number of SARS-CoV-2 infections on a national level.Epidemiology and infection · 2021Article
- Spatial scales, patterns, and positivity trends of SARS-CoV-2 pandemics in mass rapid antigen testing in Slovakia.PloS one · 2021Article
- An epidemic model for non-first-order transmission kinetics.PloS one · 2021Article
- An interactive tool to forecast US hospital needs in the coronavirus 2019 pandemic.JAMIA open · 2020Article
- A first estimation of the impact of public health actions against COVID-19 in Veneto (Italy).Journal of epidemiology and community health · 2020Article
- Piecewise quadratic growth during the 2019 novel coronavirus epidemic.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2020Article
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Abstract
The temporal growth in the number of deaths in the COVID-19 epidemic is subexponential. Here we show that a piecewise quadratic law provides an excellent fit during the thirty days after the first three fatalities on January 20 and later since the end of March 2020. There is also a brief intermediate period of exponential growth. During the second quadratic growth phase, the characteristic time of the growth is about eight times shorter than in the beginning, which can be understood as the occurrence of separate hotspots. Quadratic behavior can be motivated by peripheral growth when further spreading occurs only on the outskirts of an infected region. We also study numerical solutions of a simple epidemic model, where the spatial extend of the system is taken into account. To model the delayed onset outside China together with the early one in China within a single model with minimal assumptions, we adopt an initial condition of several hotspots, of which one reaches saturation much earlier than the others. At each site, quadratic growth commences when the local number of infections has reached a certain saturation level. The total number of deaths does then indeed follow a piecewise quadratic behavior.
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