Evidence map›Paper›PMID 32951042›Full record

ArticleAge and ageing2021

The impact of COVID-19 on adjusted mortality risk in care homes for older adults in Wales, UK: a retrospective population-based cohort study for mortality in 2016-2020.

Joe Hollinghurst, Jane Lyons, Richard Fry, Ashley Akbari, Mike Gravenor, Alan Watkins, Fiona Verity, Ronan A Lyons

Open access · hybridAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Age and ageing, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 28 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
28citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
5.4field-weighted citation impact, top 3% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

28 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 58 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Pooled it
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  12. Managing the Impact of COVID-19 in Nursing Homes and Long-Term Care Facilities: An Update.Journal of the American Medical Directors Association · 2022
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

8 authors at 2 institutions in 1 country.

Joe HollinghurstHealth Data Research UK, Swansea University Medical School, Swansea, United Kingdom.
Jane LyonsHealth Data Research UK, Swansea University Medical School, Swansea, United Kingdom.
Richard FryHealth Data Research UK, Swansea University Medical School, Swansea, United Kingdom.
Ashley AkbariHealth Data Research UK, Swansea University Medical School, Swansea, United Kingdom.
Mike GravenorCollege of Medicine, Swansea University Medical School, Swansea University, UK, Singleton Park, Swansea, Wales SA2 8PP.
Alan WatkinsHealth Data Research UK, Swansea University Medical School, Swansea, United Kingdom.
Fiona VerityHuman and Health Sciences College, Swansea University, United Kingdom.
Ronan A LyonsHealth Data Research UK, Swansea University Medical School, Swansea, United Kingdom.
Swansea University · GBHealth Data Research UK · GB

Funding

HCRW_ HRG-16-1325HCRW_ SCF-18-1504Medical Research Council MC_PC_20029
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundmortality in care homes has had a prominent focus during the COVID-19 outbreak. Care homes are particularly vulnerable to the spread of infectious diseases, which may lead to increased mortality risk. Multiple and interconnected challenges face the care home sector in the prevention and management of outbreaks of COVID-19, including adequate supply of personal protective equipment, staff shortages and insufficient or lack of timely COVID-19 testing.

aimto analyse the mortality of older care home residents in Wales during COVID-19 lockdown and compare this across the population of Wales and the previous 4 years. STUDY DESIGN AND

settingwe used anonymised electronic health records and administrative data from the secure anonymised information linkage databank to create a cross-sectional cohort study. We anonymously linked data for Welsh residents to mortality data up to the 14th June 2020.

methodswe calculated survival curves and adjusted Cox proportional hazards models to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) for the risk of mortality. We adjusted HRs for age, gender, social economic status and prior health conditions.

resultssurvival curves show an increased proportion of deaths between 23rd March and 14th June 2020 in care homes for older people, with an adjusted HR of 1.72 (1.55, 1.90) compared with 2016. Compared with the general population in 2016-2019, adjusted care home mortality HRs for older adults rose from 2.15 (2.11, 2.20) in 2016-2019 to 2.94 (2.81, 3.08) in 2020.

conclusionsthe survival curves and increased HRs show a significantly increased risk of death in the 2020 study periods.

Indexed as

COVID-19COVID-19 TestingInfection ControlAgedFemaleHealth Status DisparitiesHomes for the AgedHumansMaleMortalityNeeds AssessmentNursing HomesPersonal Protective EquipmentRisk AssessmentSARS-CoV-2Walescare homesCOVID-19frailtymortalityolder people

Identifiers

PMID32951042
PMCPMC7546151
OpenAlexW3087127292

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.