ArticleAddiction (Abingdon, England)2021
England SimSmoke: the impact of nicotine vaping on smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable deaths in England.
Article in Addiction (Abingdon, England), 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 19 papers.
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Who cites it
19 citing papers in PubMed.
- E-cigarette use and smoking-related disparities in England: an observational study using small area estimation and nonparametric regression.Harm reduction journal · 2026Observational
- SimSmoke simulation models by educational status: past and future US trends and the potential role of policy.Tobacco control · 2025Article
- Evaluating trends in cigarette and HTP use in Japan and measurement issues in the National Health and Nutrition Survey.Tobacco control · 2025Observational
- SimSmoke simulation models distinguished by race/ethnicity: past and future trends and the potential role of policy.Journal of the National Cancer Institute. Monographs · 2025Article
- Potential impact of e-cigarettes on life-years lost from conventional smoking in Ukraine, a replication study.Central European journal of public health · 2025Article
- A political economy of the tobacco supply chain in an Eastern Mediterranean country: The case of Lebanon.PloS one · 2025Article
- Scoping of Policy Impacts for Regulating E-cigarettes (SPIRE): findings from a data and decision analytic model mapping project.NIHR open research · 2025Article
- [Tabacco harm reduction: the need for a paradigm shift in German tobacco control policy].Bundesgesundheitsblatt, Gesundheitsforschung, Gesundheitsschutz · 2024Review
- Increased e-cigarette use prevalence is associated with decreased smoking prevalence among US adults.Harm reduction journal · 2024Article
- A compartmental model for smoking dynamics in Italy: a pipeline for inference, validation, and forecasting under hypothetical scenarios.BMC medical research methodology · 2024Article
- Impact of waterpipe tobacco taxation on consumption, government revenue and premature deaths averted in Jordan, Lebanon and Palestine: a simulation study.Tobacco control · 2024Article
- Measures of youth e-cigarette use: strengths, weaknesses and recommendations.Frontiers in public health · 2024Article
- Comparison of smoking prevalence in Canada before and after nicotine vaping product access using the SimSmoke model.Canadian journal of public health = Revue canadienne de sante publique · 2023Article
- Do Tobacco Companies Have an Incentive to Promote "Harm Reduction" Products?: The Role of Competition.Nicotine & tobacco research : official journal of the Society for Research on Nicotine and Tobacco · 2023Article
- Regional French evolution of tobacco and e-cigarette experimentation and use among adolescents aged 15-16 years: A cross-sectional observational study conducted in the Loire department from 2018 to 2020.Preventive medicine reports · 2023Article
- An age-period-cohort approach to studying long-term trends in obesity and overweight in England (1992-2019).Obesity (Silver Spring, Md.) · 2023Article
- The Australia Smoking and Vaping Model: The Potential Impact of Increasing Access to Nicotine Vaping Products.Nicotine & tobacco research : official journal of the Society for Research on Nicotine and Tobacco · 2023Article
- Balancing Consideration of the Risks and Benefits of E-Cigarettes.American journal of public health · 2021Article
- US Nicotine Vaping ProductInternational journal of environmental research and public health · 2021Article
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Authors and funding
8 authors.
Funding
Abstract
BACKGROUND AND
aimsWhereas the use of nicotine vaping products (NVPs) is widespread, their impact on smoking prevalence is controversial. This study considered the potential impact of NVPs on smoking prevalence in England.
designIndirect simulation model. The England SimSmoke model is validated through 2012, before NVP use became more widely used by smokers. Because information on NVP-related transitions is limited, an indirect method is used; the difference in observed smoking prevalence (reflecting NVPs) is compared with a 2012-2019 counterfactual No-NVP scenario (without NVPs) to estimate the impact of NVPs on smoking and smoking-attributable deaths.
settingEngland, 2000-2019.
participantsNationally representative sample of population. MEASUREMENTS: England's population, mortality rates and smoking prevalence estimates from three national surveys and tobacco control policies.
findingsBetween 2000 and 2012, SimSmoke projected a decline in age 18+ smoking prevalence of 23.5% in men and 27.0% in women. These projections, as well as those by specific age groups, were generally consistent with findings from the three national surveys. Comparing 2012-2019 relative reduction in age 18+ prevalence from the Annual Population Survey (males, 27.5%) with the model-predicted No-NVP reduction (males, 7.3%), the implied NVP-attributable relative reduction in adult smoking prevalence was 20.2% (95% CI, 18.8%-22.0%) for males and 20.4% (18.7%-22.2%) for females. The NVP-attributable reduction was 27.2% (22.8%-31.6%) for males and 31.7% (27.4%-36.5%) for females ages 18-24 and 18.6% (15.2%-21.8%) for males and 15.0% (11.1%-18.8%) for females ages 25-34, with similar reductions for ages 35+. The implied reduction in smoking prevalence between 2012 and 2019 equates to 165 660 (132 453-199 501) averted deaths by 2052. Other surveys yielded smaller, but relatively consistent results.
conclusionsAn indirect method of simulation modelling indicates that substantial reductions in smoking prevalence occurred in England from 2012-2019 coinciding with the growth in nicotine vaping product use.
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