Evidence map›Paper›PMID 32945968›Full record

ArticleEuropean radiology2021

Initial chest radiographs and artificial intelligence (AI) predict clinical outcomes in COVID-19 patients: analysis of 697 Italian patients.

Junaid Mushtaq, Renato Pennella, Salvatore Lavalle, Anna Colarieti, Stephanie Steidler, Carlo M A Martinenghi, Diego Palumbo, Antonio Esposito, Patrizia Rovere-Querini, Moreno Tresoldi and 4 more

Registry-linked trialOpen access · hybridAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in European radiology, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. It is linked to trial NCT04318366 (Study to Characterize Patients With SARS-Cov-2 Infection and to Create a Biobank to Identify Predictors of Disease Severity, Mortality and Treatment Response), which is not on this map. Cited by 74 papers, 3 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
74citing papers in PubMed, 3 pooled it
11.5field-weighted citation impact, top 1% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

NCT04318366 recruitingnot on this map

Study to Characterize Patients With SARS-Cov-2 Infection and to Create a Biobank to Identify Predictors of Disease Severity, Mortality and Treatment Response

TypeobservationalSponsorUniversità Vita-Salute San RaffaeleRan2020 to 2026Enrolled6,000ConditionsCoronavirus InfectionsArmsObservational Study
3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

74 citing papers in PubMed, 3 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 122 citations in OpenAlex.

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  20. The rise of artificial intelligence reading of chest X-rays for enhanced TB diagnosis and elimination.The international journal of tuberculosis and lung disease : the official journal of the International Union against Tuberculosis and Lung Disease · 2023
    Article

14 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

14 authors at 1 institution in 1 country.

Junaid MushtaqClinical and Experimental Radiology Unit, Experimental Imaging Center, IRCCS San Raffaele Scientific Institute, Milan, Italy.
Renato PennellaClinical and Experimental Radiology Unit, Experimental Imaging Center, IRCCS San Raffaele Scientific Institute, Milan, Italy.
Salvatore LavalleClinical and Experimental Radiology Unit, Experimental Imaging Center, IRCCS San Raffaele Scientific Institute, Milan, Italy.
Anna ColarietiClinical and Experimental Radiology Unit, Experimental Imaging Center, IRCCS San Raffaele Scientific Institute, Milan, Italy.
Stephanie SteidlerClinical and Experimental Radiology Unit, Experimental Imaging Center, IRCCS San Raffaele Scientific Institute, Milan, Italy.
Carlo M A MartinenghiClinical and Experimental Radiology Unit, Experimental Imaging Center, IRCCS San Raffaele Scientific Institute, Milan, Italy.
Diego PalumboClinical and Experimental Radiology Unit, Experimental Imaging Center, IRCCS San Raffaele Scientific Institute, Milan, Italy.
Antonio EspositoClinical and Experimental Radiology Unit, Experimental Imaging Center, IRCCS San Raffaele Scientific Institute, Milan, Italy.
Patrizia Rovere-QueriniFaculty of Medicine and Surgery, Vita-Salute San Raffaele University, Via Olgettina 58, Milan, Italy.
Moreno TresoldiUnit of General Medicine and Advanced Care, IRCCS San Raffaele Scientific Institute, Milan, Italy.
Giovanni LandoniFaculty of Medicine and Surgery, Vita-Salute San Raffaele University, Via Olgettina 58, Milan, Italy.
Fabio CiceriFaculty of Medicine and Surgery, Vita-Salute San Raffaele University, Via Olgettina 58, Milan, Italy.
Alberto ZangrilloFaculty of Medicine and Surgery, Vita-Salute San Raffaele University, Via Olgettina 58, Milan, Italy.
Francesco De CobelliClinical and Experimental Radiology Unit, Experimental Imaging Center, IRCCS San Raffaele Scientific Institute, Milan, Italy. decobelli.francesco@hsr.it.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-4014-3711
Vita-Salute San Raffaele University · IT

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

objectiveTo evaluate whether the initial chest X-ray (CXR) severity assessed by an AI system may have prognostic utility in patients with COVID-19.

methodsThis retrospective single-center study included adult patients presenting to the emergency department (ED) between February 25 and April 9, 2020, with SARS-CoV-2 infection confirmed on real-time reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR). Initial CXRs obtained on ED presentation were evaluated by a deep learning artificial intelligence (AI) system and compared with the Radiographic Assessment of Lung Edema (RALE) score, calculated by two experienced radiologists. Death and critical COVID-19 (admission to intensive care unit (ICU) or deaths occurring before ICU admission) were identified as clinical outcomes. Independent predictors of adverse outcomes were evaluated by multivariate analyses.

resultsSix hundred ninety-seven 697 patients were included in the study: 465 males (66.7%), median age of 62 years (IQR 52-75). Multivariate analyses adjusting for demographics and comorbidities showed that an AI system-based score ≥ 30 on the initial CXR was an independent predictor both for mortality (HR 2.60 (95% CI 1.69 - 3.99; p < 0.001)) and critical COVID-19 (HR 3.40 (95% CI 2.35-4.94; p < 0.001)). Other independent predictors were RALE score, older age, male sex, coronary artery disease, COPD, and neurodegenerative disease.

conclusionAI- and radiologist-assessed disease severity scores on CXRs obtained on ED presentation were independent and comparable predictors of adverse outcomes in patients with COVID-19.

trial registrationClinicalTrials.gov NCT04318366 ( https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04318366 ). KEY POINTS: • AI system-based score ≥ 30 and a RALE score ≥ 12 at CXRs performed at ED presentation are independent and comparable predictors of death and/or ICU admission in COVID-19 patients. • Other independent predictors are older age, male sex, coronary artery disease, COPD, and neurodegenerative disease. • The comparable performance of the AI system in relation to a radiologist-assessed score in predicting adverse outcomes may represent a game-changer in resource-constrained settings.

Indexed as

Deep LearningRadiography, ThoracicAgedAge FactorsArtificial IntelligenceComorbidityCoronary Artery DiseaseCOVID-19Emergency Service, HospitalFemaleHospitalizationHumansIntensive Care UnitsItalyMaleMiddle AgedArtificial intelligenceCOVID-19PrognosisRadiographySevere acute respiratory syndrome

Identifiers

PMID32945968
PMCPMC7499014
OpenAlexW3087359029

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.