Evidence map›Paper›PMID 32939675›Full record

ArticleRheumatology and therapy2020

Cardiovascular Risk Prediction in Ankylosing Spondylitis: From Traditional Scores to Machine Learning Assessment.

Luca Navarini, Francesco Caso, Luisa Costa, Damiano Currado, Liliana Stola, Fabio Perrotta, Lorenzo Delfino, Michela Sperti, Marco A Deriu, Piero Ruscitti and 12 more

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Rheumatology and therapy, 2020. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 17 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
17citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

17 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Article
  3. Review
  4. Review
  5. Observational
  6. Review
  7. Article
  8. Article
  9. Review
  10. Article
  11. Article
  12. Article
  13. Review
  14. Article
  15. Review
  16. Article
  17. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

22 authors.

Luca Navarini *Unit of Allergology, Immunology, Rheumatology, Department of Medicine, Università Campus Bio-Medico di Roma, Rome, Italy. l.navarini@unicampus.it.
Francesco CasoRheumatology Unit, Department of Clinical Medicine and Surgery, School of Medicine, University Federico II of Naples, Naples, Italy. francescocaso1@yahoo.it.
Luisa CostaRheumatology Unit, Department of Clinical Medicine and Surgery, School of Medicine, University Federico II of Naples, Naples, Italy.
Damiano CurradoUnit of Allergology, Immunology, Rheumatology, Department of Medicine, Università Campus Bio-Medico di Roma, Rome, Italy.
Liliana StolaUnit of Allergology, Immunology, Rheumatology, Department of Medicine, Università Campus Bio-Medico di Roma, Rome, Italy.
Fabio PerrottaAcademic Rheumatology Unit, Dipartimento di Medicina e Scienze della Salute "Vincenzo Tiberio", Università degli Studi del Molise, Campobasso, Italy.
Lorenzo DelfinoDepartment of Medicine, University of Verona, Verona, Italy.
Michela SpertiPolitoBIOMed Lab, Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, Politecnico di Torino, Torino, Italy.
Marco A DeriuPolitoBIOMed Lab, Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, Politecnico di Torino, Torino, Italy.
Piero RuscittiRheumatology Unit, Department of Biotechnological and Applied Clinical Sciences, University of L'Aquila, Aquila, Italy.
Viktoriya PavlychRheumatology Unit, Department of Biotechnological and Applied Clinical Sciences, University of L'Aquila, Aquila, Italy.
Addolorata CorradoRheumatology Clinic, Department of Medical and Surgical Sciences, University of Foggia, Foggia, Italy.
Giacomo Di Benedetto7HC, srl. Via Giovanni Paisiello 55 CAP 00198, Rome, Italy.
Marco TassoRheumatology Unit, Department of Clinical Medicine and Surgery, School of Medicine, University Federico II of Naples, Naples, Italy.
Massimo CiccozziUnit of Clinical Laboratory Science, Department of Medicine, Università Campus Bio-Medico di Roma, Rome, Italy.
Alice LaudisioUnit of Geriatrics, Department of Medicine, Università Campus Bio-Medico di Roma, Roma, Italy.
Claudio LunardiDepartment of Medicine, University of Verona, Verona, Italy.
Francesco Paolo CantatoreRheumatology Clinic, Department of Medical and Surgical Sciences, University of Foggia, Foggia, Italy.
Ennio LubranoAcademic Rheumatology Unit, Dipartimento di Medicina e Scienze della Salute "Vincenzo Tiberio", Università degli Studi del Molise, Campobasso, Italy.
Roberto GiacomelliRheumatology Unit, Department of Clinical Medicine and Surgery, School of Medicine, University Federico II of Naples, Naples, Italy.
Raffaele Scarpa
Antonella AfeltraUnit of Allergology, Immunology, Rheumatology, Department of Medicine, Università Campus Bio-Medico di Roma, Rome, Italy.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

introductionThe performance of seven cardiovascular (CV) risk algorithms is evaluated in a multicentric cohort of ankylosing spondylitis (AS) patients. Performance and calibration of traditional CV predictors have been compared with the novel paradigm of machine learning (ML).

methodsA retrospective analysis of prospectively collected data from an AS cohort has been performed. The primary outcome was the first CV event. The discriminatory ability of the algorithms was evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC), which is like the concordance-statistic (c-statistic). Three ML techniques were considered to calculate the CV risk: support vector machine (SVM), random forest (RF), and k-nearest neighbor (KNN).

resultsOf 133 AS patients enrolled, 18 had a CV event. c-statistic scores of 0.71, 0.61, 0.66, 0.68, 0.66, 0.72, and 0.67 were found, respectively, for SCORE, CUORE, FRS, QRISK2, QRISK3, RRS, and ASSIGN. AUC values for the ML algorithms were: 0.70 for SVM, 0.73 for RF, and 0.64 for KNN. Feature analysis showed that C-reactive protein (CRP) has the highest importance, while SBP and hypertension treatment have lower importance.

conclusionsAll of the evaluated CV risk algorithms exhibit a poor discriminative ability, except for RRS and SCORE, which showed a fair performance. For the first time, we demonstrated that AS patients do not show the traditional ones used by CV scores and that the most important variable is CRP. The present study contributes to a deeper understanding of CV risk in AS, allowing the development of innovative CV risk patient-specific models.

Indexed as

Ankylosing spondylitisCardiovascular riskC-reactive proteinMachine learning

Identifiers

PMID32939675
PMCPMC7695785

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY-NC
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.